AHPS Description

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AHPS Description

AHPS stands for Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service. Check it out: http://www.nws.noaa.gov/oh/hrl/ahps/ahps.htm
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/water/Ahps.shtml

This web page software is an AHPS prototype. It allows the user to look at long range river forecasts produced by the National Weather Service River Forecast System (NWSRFS) Ensemble Prediction System (ESP) model.

The CBRFC runs ESP on a regular basis. ESP takes the current soil moisture conditions from the daily forecast model and then uses past precipitation and temperature to produce simulated flow scenarios that may occur in the future. These various yearly simulations are called traces. An outside user can perform statistical analyses on these traces using this prototype which uses ESPADP, the ESP Analysis and Display Program, to view and present the ESP trace results.

The user chooses a trace for a particular streamflow point, such as the Animas River at Durango (DRGC2.) The "CS" stands for the conditional simulation, the simulation modified by current conditions. "HS" is the continuous historical simulation of past flow based on previous weather.

Other options can be specified. The accumulation type indicates a mean, maximum mean, or minimum mean daily flow, or a volume sum. The analysis window can be a subset of the original ESP run. For the prototype, the runs are made for a year at a time. The plot options include viewing the raw traces, looking at the streamflow probability for a given time interval such as week or month in a bar chart, displaying the expected value for all the traces per time interval, and plotting the exceedance probability based on the designated distribution.

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