North Fork - Somerset
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 14 2017

DAILY LOCAL: deterministic forecast flow with no contribution from Paonia
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow with Paonia current operations (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP LOCAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with no contribution from Paonia
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology with Paonia passing flow


DATELOCALTOTAL
2017-07-15293334Daily Model Output (20170714)
2017-07-16275311
2017-07-17252287
2017-07-18236271
2017-07-19223257
2017-07-20212245
2017-07-21202235
2017-07-22193225
2017-07-23184216
2017-07-24176208
2017-07-25174205ESP Model Output (20170713)
2017-07-26166198
2017-07-27160191
2017-07-28153185
2017-07-29148180
2017-07-30142174
2017-07-31137170



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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