Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 13 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2017-07-14739Daily Model Output (20170713)
2017-07-15762
2017-07-16741
2017-07-17654
2017-07-18616
2017-07-19583
2017-07-20558
2017-07-21541
2017-07-22526
2017-07-23506
2017-07-24597ESP Model Output (20170712)
2017-07-25574
2017-07-26553
2017-07-27534
2017-07-28515
2017-07-29502
2017-07-30485
2017-07-31475
2017-08-01463
2017-08-02451
2017-08-03438
2017-08-04425
2017-08-05416
2017-08-06411
2017-08-07404
2017-08-08397
2017-08-09390
2017-08-10383
2017-08-11379
2017-08-12376
2017-08-13369
2017-08-14367
2017-08-15359
2017-08-16355
2017-08-17355
2017-08-18351
2017-08-19344
2017-08-20340
2017-08-21335
2017-08-22328
2017-08-23343
2017-08-24344
2017-08-25339
2017-08-26335
2017-08-27329
2017-08-28322
2017-08-29316
2017-08-30309
2017-08-31304
2017-09-01301
2017-09-02297
2017-09-03292
2017-09-04288
2017-09-05283
2017-09-06277
2017-09-07273
2017-09-08267
2017-09-09261
2017-09-10262
2017-09-11258
2017-09-12258
2017-09-13253
2017-09-14250
2017-09-15247
2017-09-16242
2017-09-17243
2017-09-18237
2017-09-19233
2017-09-20239
2017-09-21242
2017-09-22271
2017-09-23269
2017-09-24269
2017-09-25271
2017-09-26274
2017-09-27275
2017-09-28274
2017-09-29278
2017-09-30277



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
**Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
**Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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