SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jan 16, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March and seasonal 
volumes for Jan - July and Apr - July.

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JANUARY 1-15 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Jan 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 380.8 + Muddy River 1.2 
  + Virgin River 5.9 - Powell Release 361.6) ~ 26.3 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    60  KAF ( 75% of average)
	   February   80  KAF ( 79% of average)
	   March     100  KAF ( 92% of average)

April - July Forecast:     220 KAF ( 79% of average)

January - July Forecast:   460 KAF ( 81% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan 9.0 KAF ( 67% of median or  47% of average)
	   Feb 9.0 KAF ( 65% of median or  55% of average)
	   Mar 12.0 KAF ( 81% of median or  51% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  0.5 KAF ( 32% of median or  3% of average) 
	   Feb  2.0 KAF ( 100% of median or 11% of average) 
	   Mar  6.0 KAF ( 29% of median or  20% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Jan  1.5 KAF (124% of median or 91% of average)
	   Feb  1.5 KAF (102% of median or 78% of average)
	   Mar  2.0 KAF (123% of median or 90% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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