SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Feb 18, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Feb - July and Apr - July.

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FEBRUARY OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Feb 1 - 16 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 398.9 + Muddy River 1.26
  + Virgin River 4.9 - Powell Release 339.2) ~ 65.9 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February   80  KAF ( 79% of average)
	   March      85  KAF ( 78% of average)
	   April      50  KAF ( 48% of average)

April - July Forecast:     175 KAF ( 63% of average)

February - July Forecast:  340 KAF ( 70% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb  6.5 KAF ( 47% of median or  40% of average)
	   Mar 10.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  43% of average)
	   Apr  9.0 KAF ( 59% of median or  41% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  0.0 KAF (  0% of median or   0% of average) 
	   Mar  2.0 KAF ( 10% of median or   7% of average) 
	   Apr  1.5 KAF ( 20% of median or   8% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Feb  1.5 KAF (102% of median or  78% of average)
	   Mar  2.0 KAF (123% of median or  90% of average)
	   Apr  1.5 KAF (149% of median or 129% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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