SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Mar 17, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Mar - July and Apr - July.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
March 1-15 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
March 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 295.4 + Muddy River 1.13 
  + Virgin River 4.0 - Powell Release 241.0) ~ 59.5 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March      80  KAF ( 73% of average)
	   April      50  KAF ( 48% of average)
	   May        50  KAF ( 66% of average)

April - July Forecast:     175 KAF ( 63% of average)

March - July Forecast:     255 KAF ( 66% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar 5.0 KAF ( 34% of median or  21% of average)
	   Apr 4.0 KAF ( 26% of median or  18% of average)
	   May 3.0 KAF ( 25% of median or  12% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar  3.5 KAF ( 17% of median or  12% of average) 
	   Apr  0.4 KAF (  5% of median or   2% of average) 
	   May  0.4 KAF ( 41% of median or  10% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Mar  1.6 KAF ( 98% of median or  72% of average)
	   Apr  1.3 KAF (130% of median or 112% of average)
	   May  1.0 KAF (230% of median or 151% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

$$