SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Aug 18, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Aug - Oct.
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Aug 1-15 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Aug 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 492.7 + Muddy River 1.6 
  + Virgin River 0.4 - Powell Release 446.3) ~ 48 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Aug - Oct Forecasts

	   Aug        60  KAF ( 70% of average)
	   Sep        65  KAF ( 70% of average)
	   Oct        60  KAF ( 80% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Aug  4.0 KAF ( 52% of median or  45% of average)
	   Sep  4.5 KAF ( 67% of median or  51% of average)
	   Oct  6.5 KAF ( 60% of median or  58% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Aug  1.0 KAF ( 10% of median or   5% of average) 
	   Sep  2.5 KAF ( 23% of median or  18% of average) 
	   Oct  0.5 KAF ( 35% of median or   7% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Aug  1.5 KAF ( 81% of median or  66% of average)
	   Sep  1.5 KAF (112% of median or  81% of average)
	   Oct  1.3 KAF ( 88% of median or  66% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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