SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Oct 01, 2013


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Oct - Dec.
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Sep OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Sep observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 768.4 + Muddy River 2.7 
  + Virgin River 8.2 - Powell Release 607.2) ~ 172 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Oct - Dec Forecasts

	   Oct        70  KAF ( 93% of average)
	   Nov        55  KAF ( 96% of average)
	   Dec        60  KAF ( 98% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Oct  9.0 KAF ( 83% of median or  80% of average)
	   Nov 10.0 KAF ( 86% of median or  83% of average)
	   Dec 11.0 KAF ( 91% of median or  81% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Oct  1.2 KAF ( 83% of median or  17% of average) 
	   Nov  0.5 KAF (130% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Dec  0.7 KAF (111% of median or  15% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Oct  1.4 KAF ( 95% of median or  71% of average)
	   Nov  1.2 KAF ( 93% of median or  88% of average)
	   Dec  1.2 KAF (103% of median or  96% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC/S.Bender

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