SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Feb 02, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Feb - July and Apr - July.

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JANUARY OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Jan observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 921.5 + Muddy River 2.0 
  + Virgin River 9.1 - Powell Release 877.9) ~ 54.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

February - April Forecasts

	   February   60  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   March      80  KAF ( 73% of average)
	   April      50  KAF ( 48% of average)

April - July Forecast:     170 KAF ( 61% of average)

February - July Forecast:  310 KAF ( 64% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Feb  7.5 KAF ( 54% of median or  46% of average)
	   Mar 10.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  43% of average)
	   Apr  9.0 KAF ( 59% of median or  41% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Feb  1.5 KAF ( 75% of median or   9% of average) 
	   Mar  3.0 KAF ( 15% of median or  10% of average) 
	   Apr  1.5 KAF ( 20% of median or   8% of average) 
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Feb  2.0 KAF (136% of median or 103% of average)
	   Mar  2.0 KAF (123% of median or  90% of average)
	   Apr  1.5 KAF (149% of median or 129% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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