SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Mar 16, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Mar - July and Apr - July.

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March 1-15 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
March 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 333.4 + Muddy River 1.19 
  + Virgin River 6.9 - Powell Release 296.8) ~ 44.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March      80  KAF ( 73% of average)
	   April      55  KAF ( 52% of average)
	   May        50  KAF ( 66% of average)

April - July Forecast:     185 KAF ( 67% of average)

March - July Forecast:     265 KAF ( 69% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar 10.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  43% of average)
	   Apr  8.0 KAF ( 53% of median or  36% of average)
	   May  5.0 KAF ( 42% of median or  20% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar 12.9 KAF ( 63% of median or  43% of average) 
	   Apr  1.5 KAF ( 20% of median or   8% of average) 
	   May  0.8 KAF ( 82% of median or  19% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Mar  3.0 KAF (184% of median or 135% of average)
	   Apr  1.2 KAF (120% of median or 103% of average)
	   May  0.5 KAF (115% of median or  76% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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