SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 01, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for May - July.

-------------------------------------------------------------------
APR OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
APR observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 648.7 + Muddy River 1.9 
  + Virgin River 3.6 - Powell Release 610.0) ~ 44.2 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	   May        45  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   June       20  KAF ( 57% of average)
	   July       30  KAF ( 49% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     144 KAF ( 52% of average)
May - July Forecast:     100 KAF ( 58% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   May  2.3 KAF ( 19% of median or   9% of average)
	   Jun  2.0 KAF ( 40% of median or  19% of average)
	   Jul  2.6 KAF ( 46% of median or  38% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   May  0.5 KAF ( 51% of median or  12% of average) 
	   Jun  0.1 KAF (999% of median or  49% of average) 
	   Jul  1.0 KAF ( 46% of median or  18% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   May  0.4 KAF ( 92% of median or  61% of average)
	   Jun  0.2 KAF ( 73% of median or  53% of average)
	   Jul  0.6 KAF ( 94% of median or  59% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

$$