SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Sep 15, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Sep - Nov.
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Sep 1-12 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Sep 1-12 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 318.3 + Muddy River 1.5 
  + Virgin River 6.4 - Powell Release 240.3) ~ 86 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Sep        75  KAF ( 81% of average)
	   Oct        60  KAF ( 80% of average)
	   Nov        48  KAF ( 84% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Sep        89  KAF ( 96% of average)
	   Oct        46  KAF ( 61% of average)
	   Nov        37  KAF ( 65% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep  6.0 KAF ( 90% of median or  68% of average)
	   Oct  6.5 KAF ( 60% of median or  58% of average)
	   Nov  7.3 KAF ( 63% of median or  61% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep  7.5 KAF ( 68% of median or  54% of average) 
	   Oct  1.2 KAF ( 83% of median or  17% of average) 
	   Nov  0.5 KAF (130% of median or  13% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Sep  1.6 KAF (120% of median or  87% of average)
	   Oct  1.1 KAF ( 75% of median or  56% of average)
	   Nov  1.1 KAF ( 86% of median or  81% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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