SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Nov 03, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Starting in Jan. 2012, the percentages of median and average are 
calculated using values for 1981-2010 (vs. 1976-2005 used 
previously).  The percentages may have changed from previous updates
even if the forecasted volume has not.

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.

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OCT OBSERVED DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
Oct observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 685.3 + Muddy River 2.0 
  + Virgin River 35.0 - Powell Release 612.7 ) ~ 109.6 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	   November   45  KAF ( 79% of average)
	   December   50  KAF ( 82% of average)
	   January    55  KAF ( 69% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  8.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  66% of average)
	   Dec  8.0 KAF ( 66% of median or  59% of average)
	   Jan  9.0 KAF ( 67% of median or  47% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  0.5 KAF (130% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Dec  0.8 KAF (126% of median or  17% of average) 
	   Jan  2.8 KAF (179% of median or  17% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Nov  1.5 KAF (117% of median or 110% of average)
	   Dec  1.5 KAF (129% of median or 120% of average)
	   Jan  1.5 KAF (124% of median or  91% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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