SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Nov 17, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Nov - Jan.
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Nov 1-15 Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Nov 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 287.2 + Muddy River 1.2 
  + Virgin River 3.7 - Powell Release 256.0) ~ 36.1 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Nov - Jan Forecasts

	   Nov        45  KAF ( 79% of average)
	   Dec        50  KAF ( 82% of average)
	   Jan        55  KAF ( 69% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  8.0 KAF ( 68% of median or  66% of average)
	   Dec  8.0 KAF ( 66% of median or  59% of average)
	   Jan  9.0 KAF ( 67% of median or  47% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  0.5 KAF (130% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Dec  0.8 KAF (126% of median or  17% of average) 
	   Jan  2.8 KAF (179% of median or  17% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Nov  1.5 KAF (117% of median or 110% of average)
	   Dec  1.5 KAF (129% of median or 120% of average)
	   Jan  1.5 KAF (124% of median or  91% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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