SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jan 04, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for January - March and seasonal 
volumes for Jan - July and Apr - July.

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DECEMBER OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
Dec observed (est.) (Colorado Diamond Ck 967.5 + Muddy River 2.5 
  + Virgin River 7.0 - Powell Release 863.4) ~ 113.6 KAF  

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Dec Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 56.2 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    80  KAF (100% of average)
	   February   65  KAF ( 64% of average)
	   March      90  KAF ( 83% of average)

April - July Forecast:     170 KAF ( 61% of average)

January - July Forecast:   405 KAF ( 71% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

January - March Forecasts

	   January    68  KAF ( 85% of average)
	   February   68  KAF ( 68% of average)
	   March      63  KAF ( 58% of average)

April - July Forecast:      96 KAF ( 35% of average)


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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jan  9.2 KAF ( 68% of median or 48% of average)
	   Feb  8.2 KAF ( 59% of median or 50% of average)
	   Mar 12.0 KAF ( 81% of median or 51% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jan  1.5 KAF ( 96% of median or  9% of average) 
	   Feb  4.0 KAF (199% of median or 23% of average) 
	   Mar  7.0 KAF ( 34% of median or 23% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jan  1.5 KAF (124% of median or  91% of average)
	   Feb  2.2 KAF (150% of median or 114% of average)
	   Mar  2.2 KAF (135% of median or  99% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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