SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jun 01, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jun - Aug and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for Jun - July.

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MAY OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
MAY observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 761.9 + Muddy River 2.4 
  + Virgin River 12.2 - Powell Release 715.0) ~ 61.5 KAF  

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May Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 87.5 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jun - Aug Forecasts

	   June       40  KAF (114% of average)
	   July       33  KAF ( 54% of average)
	   Aug        49  KAF ( 57% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     203 KAF ( 73% of average)
Jun - July Forecast:      76 KAF ( 79% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Jun - Aug Forecasts

	   June        30  KAF ( 86% of average)
	   July        58  KAF ( 95% of average)
	   Aug         56  KAF ( 66% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     121 KAF ( 44% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun  2.4 KAF ( 48% of median or  23% of average)
	   Jul  2.7 KAF ( 48% of median or  39% of average)
	   Aug  3.9 KAF ( 51% of median or  43% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun  0.1 KAF (999% of median or  20% of average) 
	   Jul  0.5 KAF ( 23% of median or   9% of average) 
	   Aug  2.4 KAF ( 23% of median or  12% of average) 
 
          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Jun  0.3 KAF (109% of median or  80% of average)
	   Jul  1.0 KAF (157% of median or  99% of average)
	   Aug  1.6 KAF ( 87% of median or  71% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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