SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Dec 16, 2015


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Dec - Feb.
-------------------------------------------------------------------
Dec 1-14 OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Dec 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 429.6 + Muddy River 1.2 
  + Virgin River 3.0 - Powell Release 396.5) ~ 37.3 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Dec 1-14 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 11.3 KAF  

-------------------------------------------------------------------
FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Dec - Feb Forecasts

	   Dec        80  KAF (131% of average)
	   Jan        57  KAF ( 71% of average)
	   Feb        60  KAF ( 59% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Dec - Feb Forecasts

	   Dec        66  KAF (108% of average)
	   Jan        44  KAF ( 55% of average)
	   Feb        64  KAF ( 63% of average)

-----------------------
Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Dec 9.0 KAF ( 74% of median or  67% of average)
	   Jan 9.2 KAF ( 68% of median or  48% of average)
	   Feb 8.2 KAF ( 59% of median or  50% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Dec  0.5 KAF ( 79% of median or  11% of average) 
	   Jan  1.5 KAF ( 96% of median or   9% of average) 
	   Feb  4.0 KAF (199% of median or  23% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Dec  1.5 KAF (129% of median or 120% of average)
	   Jan  1.6 KAF (132% of median or  97% of average)
	   Feb  2.6 KAF (177% of median or 134% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

$$