SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Mar 15, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for March - May and seasonal 
volumes for Mar - July and Apr - July.

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March 1-13 OBSERVED (EST.) DATA: (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Mar 1-13 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 330.4 + Muddy River 1.13 
  + Virgin River 4.9 - Powell Release 304.6) ~ 31.8 KAF  

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Mar 1-13 Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 50.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March      90  KAF ( 83% of average)
	   April      63  KAF ( 60% of average)
	   May        65  KAF ( 86% of average)

April - July Forecast:     183 KAF ( 66% of average)

March - July Forecast:     275 KAF ( 71% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March      32  KAF ( 29% of average)
	   April      10  KAF ( 10% of average)
	   May        12  KAF ( 16% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar 13.6 KAF ( 92% of median or  58% of average)
	   Apr 16.5 KAF (108% of median or  74% of average)
	   May 17.8 KAF (149% of median or  71% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar 23.0 KAF (112% of median or  76% of average) 
	   Apr  2.0 KAF ( 26% of median or  10% of average) 
	   May  2.3 KAF (235% of median or  55% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Mar  1.6 KAF ( 98% of median or  72% of average)
	   Apr  1.6 KAF (159% of median or 137% of average)
	   May  1.0 KAF (230% of median or 151% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 


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