SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Apr 17, 2017


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for April - June and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July.

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APR 1-14 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
APR 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 323.1 + Muddy River 1.24 
  + Virgin River 11.7 - Powell Release 295.7) ~ 40.3 KAF  

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March Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 48.4 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	   April      80  KAF ( 76% of average)
	   May        61  KAF ( 80% of average)
	   June       24  KAF ( 69% of average)

April - July Forecast:     180 KAF ( 65% of average)

Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	   April      31  KAF ( 30% of average)
	   May         5  KAF (  7% of average)
	   June       27  KAF ( 77% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Apr 26.0 KAF (171% of median or 118% of average)
	   May 16.8 KAF (140% of median or  67% of average)
	   Jun  5.6 KAF (112% of median or  53% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Apr  2.6 KAF ( 34% of median or  13% of average) 
	   May  2.2 KAF (225% of median or  52% of average) 
	   Jun  0.5 KAF (999% of median or 246% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Apr  1.5 KAF (149% of median or 129% of average)
	   May  0.8 KAF (184% of median or 121% of average)
	   Jun  0.5 KAF (181% of median or 133% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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