SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Nov 04, 2016


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for November - January.
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OCT OBSERVED DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
Oct observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 650.7 + Muddy River 2.4 
  + Virgin River 8.4 - Powell Release 616.4 ) ~ 47.1 KAF  

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OCt Observed Intervening Flow into Lake Mead ~ 108.8 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

November - January Forecasts

	   November   36  KAF ( 63% of average)
	   December   39  KAF ( 64% of average)
	   January    41  KAF ( 51% of average)
       
Lake Mead Adjusted Forecast Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   November    3  KAF (  5% of average)
	   December    7  KAF ( 11% of average)
	   January    10  KAF ( 13% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  6.3 KAF ( 54% of median or  52% of average)
	   Dec  6.5 KAF ( 54% of median or  48% of average)
	   Jan  5.7 KAF ( 42% of median or  30% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  0.1 KAF ( 26% of median or   3% of average) 
	   Dec  0.1 KAF ( 16% of median or   2% of average) 
	   Jan  0.5 KAF ( 32% of median or   3% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lees Ferry

	   Nov  1.0 KAF ( 78% of median or  73% of average)
	   Dec  0.9 KAF ( 78% of median or  72% of average)
	   Jan  0.8 KAF ( 66% of median or  48% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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