SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
July 16, 2014

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

July Mid-Month Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts for 2014
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco  FORECAST                  OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    35.0    36.0    38.0      8.4    14.5    10.9  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST               OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    34.0    36.0    37.0      7.5    12.2    12.7 


Little Navajo near Chromo FORECAST    OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun  
   Apr-Jul     2.0     2.1    2.3       0.3     1.2     0.5
       Jul     0.0     0.1    0.2
       Aug     0.1     0.2    0.3
       Sep     0.1     0.2    0.4

Vallecito Reservpor FORECAST          OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul   146.0   149.0   155.0     28.0    59.0    47.0  
       Jul    12.0    15.0    21.0
       Aug     9.0    13.0    24.0
       Sep     8.0    12.0    23.0


Navajo Reservoir  FORECAST            OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul   423.0   427.0   435.0    123.0   176.0   116.0  
       Jul     8.0    12.0    20.0
       Aug     2.0    18.0    40.0
       Sep     6.0    23.0    50.0


Animas - Durango FORECAST             OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul   350.0   355.0   365.0      53.0   119.0   140.0  
       Jul    38.0    43.0    53.0
       Aug    15.0    25.0    40.0
       Sep    16.0    25.0    46.0


Lemon Reservoir FORECAST              OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%      Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    35.6    36.6    37.6      7.5    17.1     9.7  
       Jul     1.3     2.3     3.3
       Aug     1.6     2.5     5.5
       Sep     1.6     2.5     5.8