SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
May 15, 2017

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

May mid-month Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    47.0    54.0    62.0       14.6  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    61.0    68.0    77.0       18.7  


Little Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul     6.0     8.0     9.0        3.0  
       May     2.5     3.7     4.0
       Jun     0.5     1.0     1.5
       Jul     0.0     0.3     0.5


Vallecito Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   181.0   205.0   240.0       45.0  
       May    62.0    66.0    73.0
       Jun    57.0    70.0    85.0
       Jul    17.0    24.0    37.0


Navajo Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   635.0   695.0   805.0      235.0  
       May   240.0   250.0   275.0
       Jun   140.0   170.0   220.0
       Jul    21.0    40.0    76.0


Animas-Durango  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul   335.0   390.0   465.0       78.0  
       May   105.0   120.0   130.0
       Jun   118.0   136.0   165.0
       Jul    34.0    56.0    92.0


Lemon Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr 
   Apr-Jul    43.0    51.0    63.0        9.8  
       May    15.0    17.0    19.0
       Jun    15.0    19.0    25.0
       Jul     3.0     5.0     9.0