SLCESPCO
National Weather Service
Colorado Basin River Forecast Center
Salt Lake City, Utah
July 17, 2017

San Juan Basin Special Forecast Group

July mid-month Forecasts

Seasonal and Monthly forecasts
Forecast volumes in thousands of acre-feet (KAF)
Exceedance probabilities in percent


Rio Blanco  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    67.0    68.0    70.0       14.6    24.0    24.0  


Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    79.0    81.0    83.0       18.7    25.0    30.0  


Little Navajo-Chromo  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul     9.0     9.1     9.3        3.0     3.9     1.9  
       Jul     0.2     0.3     0.5
       Aug     0.1     0.2     0.4
       Sep     0.1     0.2     0.5


Vallecito Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul   204.0   207.0   210.0       45.0    67.0    72.0  
       Jul    20.0    23.0    26.0
       Aug    12.0    16.0    27.0
       Sep    10.0    15.0    28.0


Navajo Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul   754.0   760.0   768.0      235.0   264.0   230.0  
       Jul    25.0    31.0    39.0
       Aug    10.0    25.0    54.0
       Sep    12.0    31.0    70.0


Animas-Durango  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul   436.0   440.0   446.0       77.0   123.0   186.0  
       Jul    50.0    54.0    60.0
       Aug    24.0    31.0    50.0
       Sep    18.0    27.0    52.0


Lemon Reservoir  FORECAST                   OBSERVED
              90%     50%     10%        Apr     May     Jun 
   Apr-Jul    53.0    54.0    56.0        9.8    17.0    23.0  
       Jul     3.0     4.0     6.0
       Aug     2.0     3.0     6.0
       Sep     1.0     3.0     6.0