SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH May 05, 2016 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as of May 5th. Seasonal precipitation is average in the Yampa River Basin at 100 percent. April was another wet month in the Yampa with monthly precipitation near 125% of average. Additional snow accumulated a the highest elevations and as of May 1st the snow water equivalent was 110 percent of median. There is currently a ridge of high pressure over region which will cause warm and dry conditions through Friday. Another closed low pressure system will impact the basin for the weekend and early next week. This system will bring additional precipitation to the region. As a result, the 10-day streamflow forecasts are indicating significant rises and the highest flows of the season so far. Model guidance suggests that there is enough remaining snow for flows to get back to similar levels; however, if the basin receives significant precipitation this weekend future flows may not be as high. The current peak to date for the Yampa-Deerlodge was 7,690 cfs on 4/16. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2016-05-05 - 2016-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2016-05-05 - 2016-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 10276 10945 12316 13348 15142 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2016-05-05 # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 4 5 20 34 38 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 1 4 9 16 23 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 1 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2016-05-05 - 2016-05-11 10034 10102 10506 12454 12963 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-06 - 2016-05-12 10080 10132 10919 12454 12977 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-07 - 2016-05-13 10080 10132 10919 12501 12980 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-08 - 2016-05-14 10080 10132 10919 12501 12980 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2016-05-07 - 2016-05-20 10097 10377 11289 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-08 - 2016-05-21 10097 10390 11289 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-09 - 2016-05-22 10102 10422 11309 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-10 - 2016-05-23 9804 10356 11309 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-11 - 2016-05-24 9360 10239 10694 12444 12847 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2016-05-05 - 2016-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2016-05-05 - 2016-05-11 10034 10102 10506 12454 12963 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-06 - 2016-05-12 10080 10132 10919 12454 12977 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-07 - 2016-05-13 10080 10132 10919 12501 12980 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-08 - 2016-05-14 10080 10132 10919 12501 12980 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-09 - 2016-05-15 10080 10132 10919 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-10 - 2016-05-16 9667 9811 10781 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-11 - 2016-05-17 8077 8443 10001 11181 12806 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-12 - 2016-05-18 7329 7775 8739 11038 12327 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-13 - 2016-05-19 7526 8284 9536 11080 12327 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-14 - 2016-05-20 7735 8673 9609 11080 11993 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-15 - 2016-05-21 8315 9035 9942 11080 12327 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-16 - 2016-05-22 8409 9446 10268 11313 12327 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-17 - 2016-05-23 8544 9648 10436 11410 12395 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-18 - 2016-05-24 8077 9896 10496 11772 12773 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-19 - 2016-05-25 8119 9828 10491 11409 12884 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-20 - 2016-05-26 8921 9681 10521 11960 12884 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-21 - 2016-05-27 8946 9545 10591 11819 12884 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-22 - 2016-05-28 8945 9725 10496 11794 12884 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-23 - 2016-05-29 8946 9585 10459 11819 12884 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-24 - 2016-05-30 8705 9668 10635 12087 13706 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-25 - 2016-05-31 8331 9135 10359 12057 13720 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-26 - 2016-06-01 8037 8826 9987 12454 13785 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-27 - 2016-06-02 7965 9049 9987 12042 13828 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-28 - 2016-06-03 7996 8968 9987 12042 13795 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-29 - 2016-06-04 8176 8855 10164 11860 13795 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-30 - 2016-06-05 8186 9381 10298 11969 13929 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-31 - 2016-06-06 8186 9488 10135 11874 13824 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-01 - 2016-06-07 8195 9390 10026 11874 13724 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-02 - 2016-06-08 8993 9390 9993 11855 13770 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-03 - 2016-06-09 8756 9180 9829 12031 13770 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-04 - 2016-06-10 8974 9244 9829 12031 13558 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-05 - 2016-06-11 8591 9216 9779 12031 13170 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-06 - 2016-06-12 8554 9325 9827 11855 13101 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-07 - 2016-06-13 8382 8815 9543 12005 13192 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-08 - 2016-06-14 7980 8537 9275 11832 13192 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-09 - 2016-06-15 7568 8262 9136 11915 13096 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-10 - 2016-06-16 7039 8108 9085 11382 13014 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-11 - 2016-06-17 6880 8108 9085 11017 13014 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-12 - 2016-06-18 6542 7856 8733 10278 12792 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-13 - 2016-06-19 6775 7531 8083 9495 12792 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-14 - 2016-06-20 6202 7098 7940 9109 12001 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-15 - 2016-06-21 5850 6382 7809 8485 12145 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-16 - 2016-06-22 5505 6026 7307 8080 10397 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-17 - 2016-06-23 4895 5921 7157 7842 9744 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-18 - 2016-06-24 4628 5652 6947 7404 9401 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-19 - 2016-06-25 4376 5448 6357 7079 9281 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-20 - 2016-06-26 4211 5348 6089 7015 8682 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-21 - 2016-06-27 4096 4871 5824 6656 8590 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-22 - 2016-06-28 3835 4649 5455 6196 8590 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-23 - 2016-06-29 3611 4459 5252 6123 8260 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-24 - 2016-06-30 3330 4116 5053 6103 7686 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-25 - 2016-07-01 3101 3679 4706 5350 7346 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-26 - 2016-07-02 2912 3524 4345 5119 6900 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-27 - 2016-07-03 2797 3220 4069 4806 6430 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-28 - 2016-07-04 2485 2983 3891 4553 6114 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-29 - 2016-07-05 2248 2721 3640 4447 5892 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-30 - 2016-07-06 2088 2526 3416 4126 5503 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-01 - 2016-07-07 2020 2422 3166 3795 5057 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-02 - 2016-07-08 1864 2244 3028 3531 4881 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-03 - 2016-07-09 1681 2119 2850 3205 4612 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-04 - 2016-07-10 1543 2067 2514 3124 4205 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-05 - 2016-07-11 1460 1926 2353 3047 4016 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-06 - 2016-07-12 1339 1750 2213 2845 3860 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-07 - 2016-07-13 1227 1581 2105 2588 3617 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-08 - 2016-07-14 1132 1446 1945 2347 3590 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-09 - 2016-07-15 1056 1333 1770 2161 3530 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-10 - 2016-07-16 991 1234 1620 1947 3301 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-11 - 2016-07-17 958 1153 1526 1771 3005 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-12 - 2016-07-18 929 1076 1432 1737 2779 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-13 - 2016-07-19 881 1016 1318 1608 2543 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-14 - 2016-07-20 834 954 1239 1441 2295 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-15 - 2016-07-21 773 907 1144 1332 2132 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-16 - 2016-07-22 737 861 1077 1266 2009 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-17 - 2016-07-23 706 816 1012 1177 1775 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-18 - 2016-07-24 675 769 923 1115 1642 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-19 - 2016-07-25 644 726 863 1035 1502 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-20 - 2016-07-26 619 686 831 955 1359 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-21 - 2016-07-27 589 653 791 888 1256 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-22 - 2016-07-28 561 622 742 845 1200 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-23 - 2016-07-29 547 595 697 804 1108 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-24 - 2016-07-30 524 573 666 761 1100 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-25 - 2016-07-31 504 567 645 723 1094 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-26 - 2016-08-01 477 524 615 688 996 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2016-05-05 - 2016-08-01 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2016-05-05 - 2016-05-18 10080 10134 11124 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-06 - 2016-05-19 10090 10233 11289 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-07 - 2016-05-20 10097 10377 11289 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-08 - 2016-05-21 10097 10390 11289 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-09 - 2016-05-22 10102 10422 11309 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-10 - 2016-05-23 9804 10356 11309 12501 13036 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-11 - 2016-05-24 9360 10239 10694 12444 12847 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-12 - 2016-05-25 8615 10185 10694 12444 12888 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-13 - 2016-05-26 9123 10185 10708 12578 13264 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-14 - 2016-05-27 9360 9958 10777 12444 13264 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-15 - 2016-05-28 9446 9958 10777 12444 13264 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-16 - 2016-05-29 9446 10185 10777 12444 13264 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-17 - 2016-05-30 9466 10244 10940 12578 13828 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-18 - 2016-05-31 9466 9979 10777 12650 13828 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-19 - 2016-06-01 9466 9979 10777 12753 13828 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-20 - 2016-06-02 9569 9979 10777 12753 13828 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-21 - 2016-06-03 9582 10251 10793 12753 13828 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-22 - 2016-06-04 9466 10078 11156 12753 13828 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-23 - 2016-06-05 9449 9901 11156 12753 13933 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-24 - 2016-06-06 9323 9920 11088 12753 13933 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-25 - 2016-06-07 8608 9791 11016 12462 13933 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-26 - 2016-06-08 9022 9704 10848 12462 13933 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-27 - 2016-06-09 9155 9725 11036 12240 13933 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-28 - 2016-06-10 9138 9725 11192 12240 13929 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-29 - 2016-06-11 9256 9725 11301 12240 13929 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-30 - 2016-06-12 9460 9791 11301 12240 13929 CFSD # Interval: 2016-05-31 - 2016-06-13 9383 9723 10985 12555 13824 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-01 - 2016-06-14 9165 9670 10632 12217 13770 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-02 - 2016-06-15 9165 9623 10707 12187 13770 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-03 - 2016-06-16 9023 9609 10296 12187 13770 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-04 - 2016-06-17 9023 9540 10296 12187 13564 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-05 - 2016-06-18 8591 9540 9850 12187 13192 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-06 - 2016-06-19 8554 9451 9827 12072 13192 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-07 - 2016-06-20 8382 9041 9626 12072 13192 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-08 - 2016-06-21 8048 8633 9347 12187 13192 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-09 - 2016-06-22 7662 8437 9215 12187 13096 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-10 - 2016-06-23 7144 8142 9195 11830 13082 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-11 - 2016-06-24 6982 8142 9195 11367 13082 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-12 - 2016-06-25 6972 8108 9085 10682 12837 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-13 - 2016-06-26 6887 7531 8461 9584 12837 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-14 - 2016-06-27 6202 7098 7940 9109 12589 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-15 - 2016-06-28 5850 6382 7809 8730 12145 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-16 - 2016-06-29 5505 6026 7307 8080 10397 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-17 - 2016-06-30 4895 5921 7157 7842 9744 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-18 - 2016-07-01 4628 5652 6947 7404 9401 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-19 - 2016-07-02 4376 5448 6357 7079 9281 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-20 - 2016-07-03 4211 5348 6089 7015 8682 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-21 - 2016-07-04 4096 4871 5824 6656 8590 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-22 - 2016-07-05 3835 4649 5455 6196 8590 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-23 - 2016-07-06 3611 4459 5252 6123 8260 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-24 - 2016-07-07 3330 4116 5053 6103 7686 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-25 - 2016-07-08 3101 3679 4706 5350 7346 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-26 - 2016-07-09 2912 3524 4345 5119 6900 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-27 - 2016-07-10 2797 3220 4069 4806 6430 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-28 - 2016-07-11 2485 2983 3891 4553 6114 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-29 - 2016-07-12 2248 2721 3640 4447 5892 CFSD # Interval: 2016-06-30 - 2016-07-13 2088 2526 3416 4126 5503 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-01 - 2016-07-14 2020 2422 3166 3795 5057 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-02 - 2016-07-15 1864 2244 3028 3531 4881 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-03 - 2016-07-16 1681 2119 2850 3205 4612 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-04 - 2016-07-17 1543 2067 2514 3124 4205 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-05 - 2016-07-18 1460 1926 2353 3047 4016 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-06 - 2016-07-19 1339 1750 2213 2845 3860 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-07 - 2016-07-20 1227 1581 2105 2588 3617 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-08 - 2016-07-21 1132 1446 1945 2347 3590 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-09 - 2016-07-22 1056 1333 1770 2161 3530 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-10 - 2016-07-23 991 1234 1620 1947 3301 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-11 - 2016-07-24 958 1153 1526 1771 3005 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-12 - 2016-07-25 929 1076 1432 1737 2779 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-13 - 2016-07-26 881 1016 1318 1608 2543 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-14 - 2016-07-27 834 954 1239 1441 2295 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-15 - 2016-07-28 773 907 1144 1332 2132 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-16 - 2016-07-29 737 861 1077 1266 2009 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-17 - 2016-07-30 706 816 1012 1177 1775 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-18 - 2016-07-31 675 769 923 1115 1642 CFSD # Interval: 2016-07-19 - 2016-08-01 644 726 864 1035 1502 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$