SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH May 04, 2017 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as of May 4. The peak flow guidance is indicating high peak flows than the model guidance indicated in mid April. Most of the month of April was warm and dry in the Yampa River Basin except the last week of the month which brought a period of wet and cool weather. As a result of the storms the last week of the month, April precipitation was 110% of average. The storms also resulted in an increase and recovery to the high elevation snowpack. The current basin snow water equivalent has increased from 70% of median in mid April to 85% of median. Temperatures for the month of April were overall near normal but there were periods of both above average and below average temperatures. Streamflows have continued to be above average from snowmelt in March and the majority of April. Flows decreased over the last week of April and the current flow at Yampa River-Deerlodge is 2,915 cfs and the peak to date is 6,150 cfs on 4/21. An active weather pattern is likely for the first half of May. Initially temperatures are expected to reach 10-15 degrees above average. This will result in rapid snowmelt and rising streamflows. A large low pressure system moves into the Colorado River basin during the second week of May bringing cooler temperatures and increased chances for precipitation. The amounts and locations of precipitation are still to be determined. The current 10 day streamflow forecasts are indicating flows may reach ~8000 cfs over the next 10 days. The current streamflow forecast does not include any forecasted precipitation from the low pressure system mentioned above. ESP guidance is still indicating that the peak flow will be after the 10 day forecast period. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-05-04 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2017-05-04 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 9471 9965 11018 12684 14842 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2017-05-04 # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 7 12 16 21 29 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 3 7 19 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 1 DAYS Number of Days Above: 16000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-20 8045 8998 9986 11345 12572 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-21 8437 9314 10181 11345 12572 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-22 9065 9346 10268 11345 12572 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-23 8357 9398 9986 10668 11371 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-24 7891 9398 9986 10781 11912 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-04 - 2017-05-17 7868 8464 10244 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-05 - 2017-05-18 8045 9188 10319 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-06 - 2017-05-19 8116 9214 10708 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-07 - 2017-05-20 8376 9256 10708 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-08 - 2017-05-21 8437 9398 10708 11748 14842 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-05-04 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-04 - 2017-05-10 7474 7775 8142 10612 11360 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-05 - 2017-05-11 7474 7807 9142 10787 12204 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-06 - 2017-05-12 7474 7894 9188 11466 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-07 - 2017-05-13 7474 7894 9188 11466 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-08 - 2017-05-14 7474 8080 9188 11466 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-05-15 7531 8142 9856 11466 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-10 - 2017-05-16 7527 8080 9965 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-11 - 2017-05-17 7580 8313 9499 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-12 - 2017-05-18 7871 8780 9965 11659 14164 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-19 7872 8988 10213 11270 12933 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-20 8045 8998 9986 11345 12572 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-21 8437 9314 10181 11345 12572 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-22 9065 9346 10268 11345 12572 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-23 8357 9398 9986 10668 11371 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-24 7891 9398 9986 10781 11912 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-05-25 8198 9329 9878 10850 12025 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-05-26 8235 9329 9710 10781 11999 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-05-27 8364 9275 9710 10633 11999 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-22 - 2017-05-28 8361 8850 9710 10483 11538 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-23 - 2017-05-29 8186 8687 9708 10483 11752 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-24 - 2017-05-30 8150 8669 9559 10572 12161 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-25 - 2017-05-31 7426 8047 9335 10460 12161 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-26 - 2017-06-01 7021 7886 8828 10532 11832 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-27 - 2017-06-02 7044 7833 9020 10171 11499 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-28 - 2017-06-03 6993 7507 8803 10344 11422 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-29 - 2017-06-04 6924 7490 8667 10383 11722 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-30 - 2017-06-05 6855 7490 8754 10383 12020 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-31 - 2017-06-06 6856 7385 8306 10472 11757 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-01 - 2017-06-07 6707 7259 8197 10240 11938 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-02 - 2017-06-08 6028 7259 8130 9674 11443 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-03 - 2017-06-09 6205 6913 8134 9434 11443 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-04 - 2017-06-10 6048 6913 8134 9835 11131 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-05 - 2017-06-11 5923 6913 8058 8933 11213 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-06 - 2017-06-12 5967 6913 7686 8639 11201 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-07 - 2017-06-13 5757 6628 7406 8526 10919 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-08 - 2017-06-14 5584 6216 6988 8576 10694 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-09 - 2017-06-15 5477 5922 6988 8742 10193 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-10 - 2017-06-16 5229 5789 6708 8532 9829 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-11 - 2017-06-17 4854 5399 6708 8522 9404 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-12 - 2017-06-18 4672 5275 6314 7623 9490 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-13 - 2017-06-19 4614 5148 6147 6732 9254 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-14 - 2017-06-20 4133 4978 5602 6724 9120 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-15 - 2017-06-21 3875 4541 5390 6708 8733 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-16 - 2017-06-22 3672 4150 5163 6241 7918 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-17 - 2017-06-23 3455 3961 5028 5801 7829 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-18 - 2017-06-24 3252 3604 4762 5353 7728 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-19 - 2017-06-25 3150 3429 4477 5167 7279 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-20 - 2017-06-26 2937 3302 4364 4938 6683 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-21 - 2017-06-27 2853 3165 4142 4740 6470 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-22 - 2017-06-28 2684 3006 3899 4593 6326 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-23 - 2017-06-29 2524 2958 3730 4238 5936 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-24 - 2017-06-30 2326 2848 3576 4209 5484 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-25 - 2017-07-01 2145 2490 3426 3975 5184 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-26 - 2017-07-02 1998 2267 3129 3945 4989 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-27 - 2017-07-03 1847 2151 2956 3669 4619 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-28 - 2017-07-04 1670 2014 2900 3668 4394 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-29 - 2017-07-05 1504 1884 2646 3516 4312 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-30 - 2017-07-06 1407 1790 2400 3200 4127 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-01 - 2017-07-07 1313 1629 2352 2957 3785 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-02 - 2017-07-08 1205 1508 2310 2815 3534 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-03 - 2017-07-09 1119 1419 2126 2631 3335 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-04 - 2017-07-10 980 1340 1868 2403 3186 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-05 - 2017-07-11 909 1234 1726 2330 3011 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-06 - 2017-07-12 881 1191 1664 2237 2911 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-07 - 2017-07-13 833 1090 1503 1963 2756 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-08 - 2017-07-14 790 997 1386 1810 2639 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-09 - 2017-07-15 770 923 1314 1651 2626 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-10 - 2017-07-16 770 866 1239 1580 2552 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-11 - 2017-07-17 729 824 1202 1447 2444 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-12 - 2017-07-18 696 788 1115 1386 2117 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-13 - 2017-07-19 670 772 1067 1330 1962 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-14 - 2017-07-20 649 746 1028 1169 1870 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-15 - 2017-07-21 615 685 932 1090 1715 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-16 - 2017-07-22 583 660 882 1067 1575 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-23 560 639 836 998 1426 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-18 - 2017-07-24 550 614 796 945 1289 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-19 - 2017-07-25 532 591 759 890 1188 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-20 - 2017-07-26 512 575 720 850 1097 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-21 - 2017-07-27 492 552 705 813 1045 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-22 - 2017-07-28 475 537 673 812 1012 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-23 - 2017-07-29 463 518 645 775 996 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-24 - 2017-07-30 457 501 617 744 939 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-25 - 2017-07-31 451 483 591 709 916 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-05-04 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-04 - 2017-05-17 7868 8464 10244 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-05 - 2017-05-18 8045 9188 10319 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-06 - 2017-05-19 8116 9214 10708 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-07 - 2017-05-20 8376 9256 10708 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-08 - 2017-05-21 8437 9398 10708 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-05-22 9256 9519 10708 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-10 - 2017-05-23 9300 9689 10708 11748 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-11 - 2017-05-24 9291 9581 10633 12670 14842 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-12 - 2017-05-25 9291 9581 10708 12506 14164 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-26 9291 9581 10633 11705 13329 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-27 9291 9519 10633 11603 12935 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-28 9323 9519 10633 11603 12935 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-29 9323 9581 10633 11705 12935 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-30 8810 9519 10439 11392 12737 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-31 8652 9486 10268 11155 12737 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-06-01 8652 9486 10150 11155 12737 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-06-02 8652 9486 10171 11155 12571 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-06-03 8527 9395 9918 11093 12561 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-22 - 2017-06-04 8527 9127 9908 11093 12161 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-23 - 2017-06-05 8340 8850 9710 11093 12462 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-24 - 2017-06-06 8150 8828 9682 11093 12462 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-25 - 2017-06-07 7540 8349 9434 10992 12697 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-26 - 2017-06-08 7420 8349 9319 10820 12462 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-27 - 2017-06-09 7420 8036 9319 10532 12462 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-28 - 2017-06-10 7275 7858 8998 10532 12462 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-29 - 2017-06-11 7275 7858 8998 10532 12462 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-30 - 2017-06-12 7275 7833 8770 10532 12462 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-31 - 2017-06-13 7256 7531 8522 10532 12020 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-01 - 2017-06-14 6807 7490 8522 10240 12020 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-02 - 2017-06-15 6610 7355 8522 9877 11525 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-03 - 2017-06-16 6511 7276 8405 9877 11525 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-04 - 2017-06-17 6175 7259 8193 9835 11213 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-05 - 2017-06-18 6018 7243 8193 8978 11213 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-06 - 2017-06-19 5967 6913 7813 8742 11201 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-07 - 2017-06-20 5757 6698 7519 9224 11090 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-08 - 2017-06-21 5625 6499 7406 9224 11137 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-09 - 2017-06-22 5554 6211 7027 9215 10772 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-10 - 2017-06-23 5229 5920 6988 8576 9863 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-11 - 2017-06-24 4854 5582 6900 8532 9558 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-12 - 2017-06-25 4731 5374 6454 7739 9558 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-13 - 2017-06-26 4673 5148 6147 7204 9373 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-14 - 2017-06-27 4133 4978 5602 6724 9120 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-15 - 2017-06-28 3875 4541 5390 6708 8733 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-16 - 2017-06-29 3672 4150 5163 6241 7918 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-17 - 2017-06-30 3455 3961 5028 5801 7829 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-18 - 2017-07-01 3252 3604 4762 5353 7728 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-19 - 2017-07-02 3150 3429 4477 5167 7279 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-20 - 2017-07-03 2937 3302 4364 4938 6683 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-21 - 2017-07-04 2853 3165 4142 4740 6470 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-22 - 2017-07-05 2684 3006 3899 4593 6326 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-23 - 2017-07-06 2524 2958 3730 4238 5936 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-24 - 2017-07-07 2326 2848 3576 4209 5484 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-25 - 2017-07-08 2145 2490 3426 3975 5184 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-26 - 2017-07-09 1998 2267 3129 3945 4989 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-27 - 2017-07-10 1847 2151 2956 3669 4619 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-28 - 2017-07-11 1670 2014 2900 3668 4394 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-29 - 2017-07-12 1504 1884 2646 3516 4312 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-30 - 2017-07-13 1407 1790 2400 3200 4127 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-01 - 2017-07-14 1313 1629 2352 2957 3785 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-02 - 2017-07-15 1205 1508 2310 2815 3534 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-03 - 2017-07-16 1119 1419 2126 2631 3335 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-04 - 2017-07-17 980 1340 1868 2403 3186 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-05 - 2017-07-18 909 1234 1726 2330 3011 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-06 - 2017-07-19 881 1191 1664 2237 2911 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-07 - 2017-07-20 833 1090 1503 1963 2756 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-08 - 2017-07-21 790 997 1386 1832 2639 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-09 - 2017-07-22 770 923 1314 1731 2626 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-10 - 2017-07-23 770 866 1239 1580 2552 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-11 - 2017-07-24 729 824 1202 1447 2444 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-12 - 2017-07-25 696 788 1115 1386 2117 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-13 - 2017-07-26 670 772 1067 1330 1962 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-14 - 2017-07-27 649 746 1028 1169 1870 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-15 - 2017-07-28 615 685 932 1090 1715 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-16 - 2017-07-29 583 660 882 1067 1575 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-30 560 639 847 998 1426 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-18 - 2017-07-31 550 614 812 945 1289 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$