SLCESGCO COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECASTCENTER NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UTAH May 09, 2017 Seasonal outlook for maximum flows: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Comments: This outlook is based on flows from ESP with model states as of May 9. A low pressure system will impact the basin today and tomorrow. Cooler temperatures and precipitation are possible through Wednesday. Warmer and drier weather will eturn for late in the week through weekend. Models are currently indicating another weather system to impact the area early next week but the details are yet to be resolved. The current flow at Yampa River-Deerlodge is 7,440 cfs and the 10 day streamflow forecasts are indicating flows may reach ~8800 cfs over the next 10 days. ESP guidance is indicating that flows will return to levels similar or slightly higher than current forecasts. However, the peak may occur in the next 10 days if there is significant precpitaiton. # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-05-09 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River Discharge # Forecast Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK Daily Peak -- Seasonal Maximum # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 8612 8719 9044 10050 11610 CFSD Number of Days to Peak from: 2017-05-09 # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 7 7 14 21 26 DAYS Number of Days Above: 10000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 1 3 DAYS Number of Days Above: 14000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS Number of Days Above: 16000 cfs # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # ------------------------------------------------------------------ # 0 0 0 0 0 DAYS 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-19 8609 8656 8710 8778 9653 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-20 8609 8656 8710 8778 9653 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-21 8609 8656 8721 9104 9695 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-22 8609 8656 8721 9104 9695 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-23 8293 8453 8681 9104 9695 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow Max Highlight: # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-28 8609 8674 8950 9648 10709 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-29 8609 8674 8950 9661 10724 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-30 8297 8514 8976 9746 11448 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-31 7868 8331 8888 9746 11448 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-06-01 7740 8250 8771 9746 11448 CFSD 1-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-05-09 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 1 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-05-15 8433 8469 8498 8539 8578 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-10 - 2017-05-16 8609 8649 8692 8764 8833 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-11 - 2017-05-17 8609 8649 8692 8768 9205 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-12 - 2017-05-18 8609 8649 8692 8771 9205 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-19 8609 8656 8710 8778 9653 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-20 8609 8656 8710 8778 9653 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-21 8609 8656 8721 9104 9695 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-22 8609 8656 8721 9104 9695 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-23 8293 8453 8681 9104 9695 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-24 7765 8223 8652 9314 10211 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-05-25 7692 8160 8652 9314 10211 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-05-26 7682 8063 8652 9289 10709 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-05-27 7728 7956 8652 9289 10709 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-22 - 2017-05-28 7691 7818 8514 9141 9950 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-23 - 2017-05-29 7446 7743 8307 9138 10130 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-24 - 2017-05-30 7429 7743 8439 9260 10628 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-25 - 2017-05-31 6791 7408 8295 9029 10628 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-26 - 2017-06-01 6357 7213 8038 8983 10615 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-27 - 2017-06-02 6193 7213 8088 9029 10070 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-28 - 2017-06-03 6193 7087 7758 8826 10070 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-29 - 2017-06-04 6011 7033 7758 8955 10070 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-30 - 2017-06-05 5848 6668 7660 8983 10032 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-31 - 2017-06-06 5794 6595 7520 8983 10032 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-01 - 2017-06-07 6081 6379 7087 8826 10032 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-02 - 2017-06-08 5829 6525 7087 8485 10032 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-03 - 2017-06-09 5696 6412 7087 8485 9973 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-04 - 2017-06-10 5542 6430 7063 8269 9973 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-05 - 2017-06-11 5633 6083 6997 7589 9864 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-06 - 2017-06-12 5644 6079 6710 7462 9797 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-07 - 2017-06-13 5521 5788 6410 7462 9617 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-08 - 2017-06-14 5069 5634 6391 7462 9229 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-09 - 2017-06-15 4721 5429 6302 7462 8584 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-10 - 2017-06-16 4622 5147 6279 7362 8287 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-11 - 2017-06-17 4145 5107 6279 7223 7830 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-12 - 2017-06-18 3933 4772 5781 6737 7496 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-13 - 2017-06-19 3868 4419 5373 6550 7442 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-14 - 2017-06-20 3788 3948 5157 6487 7442 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-15 - 2017-06-21 3597 3780 4815 5929 7216 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-16 - 2017-06-22 3401 3494 4331 5572 6596 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-17 - 2017-06-23 3135 3464 4113 5231 6536 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-18 - 2017-06-24 2946 3306 3939 4831 6289 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-19 - 2017-06-25 2846 3188 3733 4526 5804 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-20 - 2017-06-26 2605 3068 3695 4460 5325 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-21 - 2017-06-27 2459 2859 3606 4274 5140 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-22 - 2017-06-28 2386 2758 3434 3888 4981 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-23 - 2017-06-29 2294 2619 3298 3707 4724 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-24 - 2017-06-30 1983 2478 3077 3524 4410 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-25 - 2017-07-01 1860 2231 3017 3469 4156 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-26 - 2017-07-02 1777 2164 2871 3314 3892 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-27 - 2017-07-03 1662 2033 2717 3126 3605 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-28 - 2017-07-04 1526 1842 2602 3069 3452 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-29 - 2017-07-05 1406 1681 2459 2903 3207 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-30 - 2017-07-06 1300 1580 2372 2718 3181 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-01 - 2017-07-07 1182 1443 2186 2514 3006 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-02 - 2017-07-08 1106 1333 1967 2386 2722 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-03 - 2017-07-09 1039 1241 1736 2226 2637 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-04 - 2017-07-10 901 1080 1640 2018 2440 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-05 - 2017-07-11 846 1008 1594 1958 2291 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-06 - 2017-07-12 813 972 1515 1884 2178 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-07 - 2017-07-13 778 912 1411 1654 2079 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-08 - 2017-07-14 757 862 1310 1525 2037 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-09 - 2017-07-15 732 817 1210 1488 2012 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-10 - 2017-07-16 697 779 1100 1372 1945 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-11 - 2017-07-17 669 741 1036 1274 1941 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-12 - 2017-07-18 644 711 976 1184 1781 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-13 - 2017-07-19 619 702 922 1104 1659 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-14 - 2017-07-20 597 702 874 1093 1589 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-15 - 2017-07-21 578 631 821 1014 1432 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-16 - 2017-07-22 562 607 792 936 1339 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-23 540 594 758 872 1255 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-18 - 2017-07-24 517 578 736 828 1095 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-19 - 2017-07-25 498 558 698 799 1005 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-20 - 2017-07-26 488 541 661 759 928 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-21 - 2017-07-27 473 521 635 740 879 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-22 - 2017-07-28 455 501 606 699 849 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-23 - 2017-07-29 444 489 581 665 841 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-24 - 2017-07-30 433 474 567 636 830 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-25 - 2017-07-31 423 457 545 609 830 CFSD 2-week Seasonal Peak Flow: # ESP Forecast Information # # Analysis Period: 2017-05-09 - 2017-07-31 (MST) # Forecast Parameters: River River Flow (Mean Daily) - (CFSD) # Forecast Interval: 2 week # Forecast Point: YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # # YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK # Exceedance Prob. 0.90 0.75 0.50 0.25 0.10 Units # -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- # Interval: 2017-05-09 - 2017-05-22 8609 8656 8721 9104 9695 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-10 - 2017-05-23 8609 8667 8768 9104 9695 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-11 - 2017-05-24 8609 8674 8771 9345 10211 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-12 - 2017-05-25 8609 8674 8771 9648 10211 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-13 - 2017-05-26 8609 8674 8771 9648 10709 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-14 - 2017-05-27 8609 8674 8804 9648 10709 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-15 - 2017-05-28 8609 8674 8950 9648 10709 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-16 - 2017-05-29 8609 8674 8950 9661 10724 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-17 - 2017-05-30 8297 8514 8976 9746 11448 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-18 - 2017-05-31 7868 8331 8888 9746 11448 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-19 - 2017-06-01 7740 8250 8771 9746 11448 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-20 - 2017-06-02 7728 8219 8976 9810 11448 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-21 - 2017-06-03 7728 8160 8976 9810 11448 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-22 - 2017-06-04 7691 8107 8826 9653 10628 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-23 - 2017-06-05 7597 8107 8826 9810 10628 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-24 - 2017-06-06 7556 7818 8776 9810 10628 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-25 - 2017-06-07 6960 7643 8485 9497 11448 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-26 - 2017-06-08 6662 7529 8451 9270 11333 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-27 - 2017-06-09 6671 7445 8451 9065 10628 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-28 - 2017-06-10 6543 7166 8269 8995 10628 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-29 - 2017-06-11 6429 7167 8269 8983 10628 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-30 - 2017-06-12 6429 7213 7660 8983 10571 CFSD # Interval: 2017-05-31 - 2017-06-13 6243 7002 7529 8983 10227 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-01 - 2017-06-14 6125 6779 7405 8826 10032 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-02 - 2017-06-15 5965 6751 7428 8485 10032 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-03 - 2017-06-16 5905 6601 7428 8485 9973 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-04 - 2017-06-17 5793 6601 7362 8269 9973 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-05 - 2017-06-18 5750 6302 7063 7589 9864 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-06 - 2017-06-19 5644 6302 6751 7462 9797 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-07 - 2017-06-20 5544 5790 6710 7542 9724 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-08 - 2017-06-21 5270 5640 6530 7542 9711 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-09 - 2017-06-22 4997 5585 6321 7542 9361 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-10 - 2017-06-23 4724 5367 6302 7463 8681 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-11 - 2017-06-24 4145 5143 6290 7362 8287 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-12 - 2017-06-25 3933 4849 5790 7234 7830 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-13 - 2017-06-26 3869 4419 5373 6627 7530 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-14 - 2017-06-27 3788 3948 5157 6487 7442 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-15 - 2017-06-28 3597 3780 4815 5929 7216 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-16 - 2017-06-29 3401 3494 4331 5572 6596 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-17 - 2017-06-30 3135 3464 4113 5231 6536 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-18 - 2017-07-01 2946 3306 3939 4831 6289 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-19 - 2017-07-02 2846 3188 3733 4526 5804 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-20 - 2017-07-03 2605 3068 3695 4460 5325 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-21 - 2017-07-04 2459 2859 3606 4274 5140 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-22 - 2017-07-05 2386 2758 3434 3888 4981 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-23 - 2017-07-06 2294 2619 3298 3707 4724 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-24 - 2017-07-07 1983 2478 3077 3524 4410 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-25 - 2017-07-08 1860 2231 3017 3469 4156 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-26 - 2017-07-09 1777 2164 2871 3314 3892 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-27 - 2017-07-10 1662 2033 2717 3126 3605 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-28 - 2017-07-11 1526 1842 2602 3069 3452 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-29 - 2017-07-12 1406 1681 2459 2903 3207 CFSD # Interval: 2017-06-30 - 2017-07-13 1300 1580 2372 2718 3181 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-01 - 2017-07-14 1182 1443 2186 2514 3006 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-02 - 2017-07-15 1106 1333 1967 2386 2722 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-03 - 2017-07-16 1039 1241 1736 2226 2637 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-04 - 2017-07-17 901 1080 1640 2018 2440 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-05 - 2017-07-18 846 1008 1594 1958 2291 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-06 - 2017-07-19 813 972 1515 1884 2178 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-07 - 2017-07-20 778 912 1411 1706 2079 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-08 - 2017-07-21 757 862 1310 1610 2037 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-09 - 2017-07-22 732 817 1210 1489 2012 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-10 - 2017-07-23 697 779 1100 1372 1945 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-11 - 2017-07-24 669 741 1036 1274 1941 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-12 - 2017-07-25 644 711 976 1184 1781 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-13 - 2017-07-26 619 702 922 1104 1659 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-14 - 2017-07-27 597 716 874 1093 1589 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-15 - 2017-07-28 578 631 821 1014 1432 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-16 - 2017-07-29 562 607 797 936 1339 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-17 - 2017-07-30 540 594 772 872 1255 CFSD # Interval: 2017-07-18 - 2017-07-31 517 578 759 828 1095 CFSD Please feel free to contact the forecaster at ashley.nielson@noaa.gov Issued by: A.Nielson NNNN $$