COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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CLRU1 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Colorado - Cisco- Nr (CLRU1)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date  Max   30   MP   70  Min
1      2017-1-1 5800 4700 3900 3250 2500
2      2017-2-1 7550 6000 5500 5000 4000
3      2017-3-1 7300 6000 5500 5000 4200
4      2017-4-1 6400 5300 4950 4550 4000
5      2017-5-1 5500 4700 4500 4150 3850
6      2017-6-1 4700 4500 4310 4100 3900
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date  p10  p30  p50  p70  p90    Obs
34  2016-12-09 5414 3915 2911 2517 1998     NA
35  2016-12-10 5465 3974 2966 2533 2032     NA
36  2016-12-11 5586 4137 3113 2655 2137     NA
37  2016-12-12 5660 4101 3166 2712 2184     NA
38  2016-12-13 5596 4019 3118 2693 2183     NA
39  2016-12-14 5573 3939 3110 2694 2191     NA
40  2016-12-15 5585 3973 3174 2707 2243     NA
41  2016-12-16 5720 4064 3286 2732 2330     NA
42  2016-12-17 6300 4555 3705 3139 2720     NA
43  2016-12-18 6269 4523 3616 3123 2749     NA
44  2016-12-19 6107 4500 3586 3079 2742     NA
45  2016-12-20 5874 4520 3590 3045 2711     NA
46  2016-12-21 5817 4475 3559 3040 2681     NA
47  2016-12-22 5805 4416 3584 3032 2698     NA
48  2016-12-23 5900 4541 3694 3156 2801     NA
49  2016-12-24 5617 4539 3694 3164 2790     NA
50  2016-12-25 5595 4614 3798 3243 2869     NA
51  2016-12-26 5653 4613 3834 3269 2833     NA
52  2016-12-27 5628 4543 3779 3240 2805     NA
53  2016-12-28 5661 4492 3789 3247 2826     NA
54  2016-12-29 5650 4460 3762 3193 2807     NA
55  2016-12-30 5571 4455 3749 3169 2789     NA
56  2016-12-31 5505 4434 3699 3150 2739     NA
57  2017-01-01 5454 4421 3675 3137 2734     NA
58  2017-01-02 5435 4386 3663 3132 2713     NA
59  2017-01-03 5579 4537 3773 3247 2732     NA
60  2017-01-04 5639 4480 3833 3276 2726     NA
61  2017-01-05 5977 4707 4029 3528 2939     NA
62  2017-01-06 6137 4939 4138 3649 3082     NA
63  2017-01-07 6162 4948 4165 3622 3019     NA
64  2017-01-08 6240 5022 4232 3679 3066     NA
65  2017-01-09 6454 5244 4460 3860 3253     NA
66  2017-01-10 6950 5675 4968 4304 3663     NA
67  2017-01-11 7057 5595 5018 4410 3741     NA
68  2017-01-12 7201 5784 5177 4587 3864     NA
69  2017-01-13 7350 5941 5261 4707 3993     NA
70  2017-01-14 7315 6005 5210 4761 4010     NA
71  2017-01-15 7342 6058 5268 4806 4054     NA
72  2017-01-16 7340 6031 5250 4791 4048     NA
73  2017-01-17 7245 6016 5231 4737 4035     NA
74  2017-01-18 7092 6000 5229 4731 4031     NA
75  2017-01-19 7051 5983 5209 4716 4025     NA
76  2017-01-20 6941 5998 5191 4720 4041     NA
77  2017-01-21 7069 6061 5307 4843 4137     NA
78  2017-01-22 7203 5972 5446 5005 4261     NA
79  2017-01-23 7210 6030 5525 5091 4329     NA
80  2017-01-24 7396 6164 5672 5275 4477     NA
81  2017-01-25 7462 6210 5699 5333 4539     NA
82  2017-01-26 7440 6139 5616 5327 4520     NA
85  2017-01-29 7455 6024 5487 5150 4485     NA
86  2017-01-30 7477 6022 5473 5155 4437     NA
87  2017-01-31 7575 5994 5508 5208 4491     NA
88  2017-02-01 7461 5873 5426 5155 4386     NA
89  2017-02-02 7389 5816 5402 5142 4346     NA
90  2017-02-03 7390 5815 5401 5083 4262     NA
91  2017-02-04 7393 5816 5395 5070 4183     NA
92  2017-02-05 7398 5828 5349 5044 4018     NA
93  2017-02-06 7374 5797 5317 5007 3996     NA
94  2017-02-07 7357 5773 5300 4958 3988     NA
95  2017-02-08 7496 5926 5414 5138 4119     NA
96  2017-02-09 7454 5958 5363 5130 4130     NA
97  2017-02-10 7363 5919 5311 5009 4090     NA
98  2017-02-11 7261 5807 5271 4949 4009     NA
99  2017-02-12 7403 5833 5422 5055 4109     NA
100 2017-02-13 7470 5833 5527 5120 4165     NA
101 2017-02-14 7447 5789 5429 5010 4149     NA
102 2017-02-15 7479 5954 5534 5028 4292     NA
103 2017-02-16 7438 5942 5499 5017 4286     NA
104 2017-02-17 7348 5919 5482 5009 4279     NA
105 2017-02-18 7213 5893 5450 5001 4295     NA
106 2017-02-19 7151 5867 5399 5013 4292     NA
107 2017-02-20 7083 5836 5479 5027 4313     NA
108 2017-02-21 7069 5802 5383 5001 4284     NA
109 2017-02-22 7050 5787 5353 4974 4227     NA
110 2017-02-23 7052 5718 5292 4970 4203     NA
111 2017-02-24 7089 5634 5319 4999 4231     NA
112 2017-02-25 7112 5708 5335 5010 4291     NA
113 2017-02-26 7039 5639 5304 4916 4298     NA
114 2017-02-27 6976 5622 5286 4870 4268     NA
115 2017-02-28 7187 5851 5512 5077 4395     NA
116 2017-03-01 7315 5960 5564 5214 4413     NA
117 2017-03-02 7303 5960 5534 5067 4408     NA
118 2017-03-03 7261 5888 5458 5025 4271     NA
119 2017-03-04 7187 5815 5397 5001 4193     NA
120 2017-03-05 7153 5692 5304 4952 4164     NA
121 2017-03-06 7115 5619 5271 4939 4141     NA
122 2017-03-07 7115 5598 5278 4982 4157     NA
123 2017-03-08 7087 5579 5299 4972 4153     NA
124 2017-03-09 7000 5490 5241 4843 4106     NA
125 2017-03-10 6930 5453 5178 4767 4115     NA
126 2017-03-11 6873 5439 5108 4706 4118     NA
127 2017-03-12 6775 5336 5033 4524 4099     NA
128 2017-03-13 6728 5322 4964 4492 4074     NA
129 2017-03-14 6647 5265 4838 4452 4034     NA
130 2017-03-15 6506 5221 4816 4398 3973     NA
131 2017-03-16 6452 5184 4806 4361 3910     NA
132 2017-03-17 6353 5149 4726 4353 3838     NA
133 2017-03-18 6197 5009 4698 4337 3819     NA
134 2017-03-19 6114 4946 4605 4296 3780     NA
135 2017-03-20 6110 4938 4582 4296 3737     NA
136 2017-03-21 6096 4881 4574 4294 3713     NA
137 2017-03-22 6032 4846 4569 4309 3664     NA
138 2017-03-23 5984 4838 4512 4276 3624     NA
139 2017-03-24 6132 4960 4621 4387 3751     NA
140 2017-03-25 6093 4947 4529 4360 3761     NA
141 2017-03-26 6125 4997 4564 4420 3815     NA
142 2017-03-27 6107 4956 4557 4372 3790     NA
143 2017-03-28 6141 5022 4600 4329 3831     NA
144 2017-03-29 6194 5160 4719 4417 3933     NA
145 2017-03-30 6129 5018 4653 4333 3836     NA
146 2017-03-31 6064 5022 4593 4362 3841     NA
147 2017-04-01 6206 5180 4811 4537 3985     NA
148 2017-04-02 6196 5130 4741 4509 3913   17.4
149 2017-04-03 6147 5068 4733 4477 3880   34.3
150 2017-04-04 6131 5048 4746 4540 3900   51.1
151 2017-04-05 6200 5162 4854 4633 4006   67.8
152 2017-04-06 6151 5090 4779 4541 3959   84.8
153 2017-04-07 6110 4945 4706 4519 3837   99.1
154 2017-04-08 6063 4926 4696 4468 3811  113.2
155 2017-04-09 6053 4889 4634 4454 3829  128.6
156 2017-04-10 6004 4782 4623 4317 3829  146.2
157 2017-04-11 5938 4755 4571 4302 3827  165.5
158 2017-04-12 5894 4758 4540 4264 3828  183.8
159 2017-04-13 5842 4738 4492 4183 3786  201.7
160 2017-04-14 5810 4698 4464 4129 3769  220.3
161 2017-04-15 5778 4681 4415 4114 3654  241.5
162 2017-04-16 5768 4639 4360 4073 3566  266.8
163 2017-04-17 5772 4641 4329 4063 3584  295.8
164 2017-04-18 5674 4597 4297 4011 3555  326.4
165 2017-04-19 5637 4511 4268 3993 3551  357.9
166 2017-04-20 5547 4516 4259 3987 3563  390.6
167 2017-04-21 5521 4580 4302 4045 3617  426.4
168 2017-04-22 5526 4580 4306 4071 3648  462.2
169 2017-04-23 5520 4485 4261 3968 3660  495.8
170 2017-04-24 5461 4439 4216 3967 3653  526.3
171 2017-04-25 5504 4462 4224 3995 3682  554.2
172 2017-04-26 5467 4408 4253 4051 3709  582.5
173 2017-04-27 5416 4451 4265 4090 3745  609.7
174 2017-04-28 5527 4512 4366 4153 3847  635.7
175 2017-04-29 5484 4503 4374 4215 3885  660.9
176 2017-04-30 5397 4532 4387 4250 3902  683.1
177 2017-05-01 5293 4566 4391 4266 3926  704.1
178 2017-05-02 5193 4510 4333 4210 3880  723.2
179 2017-05-03 5091 4529 4324 4213 3883  740.9
180 2017-05-04 4976 4505 4284 4145 3873  757.0
181 2017-05-05 4881 4426 4223 4079 3847  770.8
182 2017-05-06 4796 4377 4163 3969 3783  784.8
183 2017-05-07 4723 4354 4159 3955 3771  803.2
184 2017-05-08 4715 4297 4149 3956 3771  829.2
185 2017-05-09 4654 4225 4095 3921 3741  862.4
186 2017-05-10 4697 4267 4141 3959 3789  903.0
187 2017-05-11 4745 4271 4176 3932 3813  948.1
188 2017-05-12 4722 4210 4055 3910 3802  993.8
189 2017-05-13 4682 4197 4023 3879 3783 1037.2
190 2017-05-14 4654 4193 3999 3861 3757 1080.8
191 2017-05-15 4609 4202 3978 3868 3757 1133.0
192 2017-05-16 4573 4167 3973 3862 3744 1191.2
193 2017-05-17 4506 4105 3949 3852 3738 1249.2
194 2017-05-18 4693 4230 4105 3992 3889 1304.4
195 2017-05-19 4929 4422 4271 4194 4087 1352.9
196 2017-05-20 4936 4399 4260 4193 4083 1402.0
197 2017-05-21 4861 4375 4243 4186 4064 1446.8
198 2017-05-22 4880 4430 4285 4237 4121 1482.2
199 2017-05-23 4816 4469 4309 4268 4161 1515.4
200 2017-05-24 4758 4449 4296 4240 4121 1546.9
201 2017-05-25 4663 4426 4267 4193 4084 1576.3
202 2017-05-26 4615 4427 4294 4217 4110 1605.9
203 2017-05-27 4525 4409 4292 4199 4109 1641.0
204 2017-05-28 4538 4450 4327 4237 4156 1683.9
205 2017-05-29 4524 4431 4309 4229 4144 1732.1
206 2017-05-30 4485 4351 4249 4203 4131 1778.7
208 2017-06-01 4459 4343 4233 4208 4130 1882.6
209 2017-06-02 4437 4355 4238 4216 4138 1933.2
210 2017-06-03 4433 4322 4247 4227 4145 1987.2
211 2017-06-04 4433 4322 4256 4241 4155 2046.7
212 2017-06-05 4469 4352 4295 4272 4185 2110.7
213 2017-06-06 4453 4342 4298 4270 4194 2177.4
214 2017-06-07 4442 4357 4312 4272 4212 2248.5
215 2017-06-08 4430 4360 4317 4275 4218 2322.7
216 2017-06-09 4425 4360 4308 4265 4216 2399.3
218 2017-06-11 4437 4375 4326 4292 4249 2560.8
219 2017-06-12 4428 4364 4323 4297 4251 2643.6
220 2017-06-13 4417 4359 4316 4291 4253 2726.7
221 2017-06-14 4408 4356 4315 4286 4251 2808.2
222 2017-06-15 4422 4372 4339 4300 4276 2884.9
223 2017-06-16 4404 4365 4332 4292 4262 2950.1
224 2017-06-17 4386 4348 4321 4283 4257 3009.2
225 2017-06-18 4384 4343 4315 4279 4253 3068.5
226 2017-06-19 4459 4422 4398 4359 4335 3128.4
227 2017-06-20 4470 4435 4404 4374 4350 3192.2
228 2017-06-21 4471 4425 4395 4375 4351 3257.1
229 2017-06-22 4461 4415 4381 4360 4344 3319.1
230 2017-06-23 4457 4412 4376 4357 4336 3378.2
231 2017-06-24 4439 4405 4367 4350 4325 3434.7
232 2017-06-25 4419 4391 4355 4336 4316 3487.0
233 2017-06-26 4407 4380 4345 4329 4307 3535.5
234 2017-06-27 4401 4366 4339 4322 4301 3581.4
235 2017-06-28 4397 4351 4327 4314 4296 3622.3
236 2017-06-29 4390 4345 4322 4308 4293 3661.5
237 2017-06-30 4383 4338 4313 4302 4288 3697.8
238 2017-07-01 4342 4303 4282 4272 4258 3702.5
239 2017-07-02 4334 4299 4278 4266 4253 3731.2
240 2017-07-03 4323 4294 4274 4258 4250 3758.8
241 2017-07-04 4314 4290 4268 4252 4245 3785.2
242 2017-07-05 4308 4287 4266 4248 4241 3810.1
243 2017-07-06 4295 4281 4263 4247 4241 3834.4
244 2017-07-07 4289 4275 4260 4245 4239 3857.2
245 2017-07-08 4280 4267 4255 4242 4237 3879.1
246 2017-07-09 4281 4271 4262 4249 4245 3900.6
247 2017-07-10 4280 4268 4260 4249 4244 3921.8
248 2017-07-11 4283 4267 4260 4251 4246 3941.8
249 2017-07-12 4295 4277 4269 4260 4255 3961.9
250 2017-07-13 4313 4297 4287 4282 4276 3981.8
251 2017-07-14 4318 4301 4290 4285 4280 4004.6
252 2017-07-15 4321 4305 4292 4289 4283 4027.1
253 2017-07-16 4313 4299 4293 4290 4284 4049.8
254 2017-07-17 4310 4296 4292 4287 4283 4071.4
255 2017-07-18 4310 4294 4291 4287 4283 4091.6
256 2017-07-19 4315 4297 4294 4290 4287 4110.1
257 2017-07-20 4321 4304 4301 4296 4293 4127.8
258 2017-07-21 4323 4311 4307 4303 4300 4146.8
259 2017-07-22 4329 4317 4310 4308 4305 4164.4
260 2017-07-23 4329 4316 4311 4309 4307 4182.6
261 2017-07-24 4322 4316 4312 4310 4309 4200.8
262 2017-07-25 4324 4319 4316 4314 4314 4217.9
263 2017-07-26 4328 4323 4320 4320 4319 4234.1
264 2017-07-27 4326 4324 4324 4324 4324 4251.6
265 2017-07-28 4328 4327 4327 4327 4327 4270.0
266 2017-07-29 4331 4331 4331 4331 4331 4288.7
267 2017-07-30 4333 4333 4333 4333 4333 4305.7
268 2017-07-31 4338 4338 4338 4338 4338 4324.2
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 9180.5 in 1984, Minimum of 1056.8 in 2002, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 4440/3920.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.