COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
  NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE / NATIONAL OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ADMINISTRATION

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DIRC2 Water Supply Forecasts

  Plot   Forecasts   Observations   Historical   Annual/Official Verification   Reforcast Verification   

Water Year:     2013   2014   2015   2016   2017   
2017 Runoff Forecast Apr-Jul No Precipitation Forecast Included
Blue - Dillon Res (DIRC2)

Official Forecasts
  Forecast Date Max  30  MP  70 Min
1      2017-1-1 220 183 155 130 100
2      2017-2-1 255 215 195 175 140
3      2017-3-1 235 210 195 175 150
4      2017-4-1 225 190 180 165 140
5      2017-5-1 210 185 175 155 140
6      2017-6-1 205 195 185 175 160
MP=Most Probable

ESP Forecasts - 0 Days
      Run Date p10 p30 p50 p70   p90    Obs
35  2016-12-09 181 158 123 102  73.3     NA
36  2016-12-10 185 162 126 105  75.7     NA
37  2016-12-11 194 174 134 117  83.0     NA
38  2016-12-12 197 177 137 121  86.3     NA
39  2016-12-13 196 175 136 119  85.7     NA
40  2016-12-14 194 174 135 115  85.2     NA
41  2016-12-15 204 181 142 124  91.8     NA
42  2016-12-16 204 180 140 124  91.5     NA
43  2016-12-17 218 187 152 136 102.2     NA
44  2016-12-18 218 187 151 136 101.7     NA
45  2016-12-19 218 185 150 134 101.7     NA
46  2016-12-20 213 180 145 129  97.8     NA
47  2016-12-21 213 178 144 129  97.8     NA
48  2016-12-22 212 174 144 127  97.5     NA
49  2016-12-23 215 175 147 129  99.5     NA
50  2016-12-24 215 173 147 129  99.6     NA
51  2016-12-25 214 171 148 131 101.1     NA
52  2016-12-26 214 170 144 131 102.1     NA
53  2016-12-27 212 168 143 129 100.5     NA
54  2016-12-28 213 170 145 131 103.1     NA
55  2016-12-29 213 170 146 131 104.3     NA
56  2016-12-30 213 171 146 131 103.7     NA
57  2016-12-31 212 171 145 130 102.9     NA
58  2017-01-01 208 171 145 129 102.3     NA
59  2017-01-02 207 170 145 129 101.2     NA
60  2017-01-03 209 174 148 131 101.0     NA
61  2017-01-04 208 174 148 131  99.6     NA
62  2017-01-05 219 185 157 139 108.8     NA
63  2017-01-06 224 186 163 140 113.0     NA
64  2017-01-07 223 183 162 139 111.8     NA
65  2017-01-08 225 185 167 143 114.9     NA
66  2017-01-09 235 197 178 152 124.6     NA
67  2017-01-10 248 210 191 164 136.8     NA
68  2017-01-11 252 214 195 168 140.6     NA
69  2017-01-12 259 220 200 175 147.4     NA
70  2017-01-13 260 223 202 176 149.1     NA
71  2017-01-14 257 222 200 175 148.0     NA
72  2017-01-15 255 222 201 175 147.7     NA
73  2017-01-16 256 222 201 175 148.2     NA
74  2017-01-17 254 222 201 174 148.8     NA
75  2017-01-18 253 222 201 173 147.9     NA
76  2017-01-19 253 219 201 173 145.2     NA
77  2017-01-20 252 218 201 171 143.3     NA
78  2017-01-21 254 218 199 172 144.4     NA
79  2017-01-22 254 217 200 172 145.0     NA
80  2017-01-23 254 219 201 174 146.7     NA
81  2017-01-24 259 223 205 179 151.8     NA
82  2017-01-25 259 222 202 179 151.9     NA
83  2017-01-26 258 220 197 178 150.7     NA
84  2017-01-27 258 220 197 176 150.7     NA
86  2017-01-29 257 221 196 177 148.7     NA
87  2017-01-30 255 221 196 177 147.6     NA
88  2017-01-31 252 217 198 179 148.3     NA
89  2017-02-01 251 216 198 179 146.0     NA
90  2017-02-02 250 216 197 178 144.4     NA
91  2017-02-03 248 216 197 178 142.0     NA
92  2017-02-04 248 216 195 177 139.9     NA
93  2017-02-05 247 213 193 177 139.3     NA
94  2017-02-06 247 212 193 178 138.1     NA
95  2017-02-07 246 212 192 175 137.5     NA
96  2017-02-08 256 221 202 185 146.2     NA
97  2017-02-09 255 221 201 184 146.0     NA
98  2017-02-10 252 218 200 179 145.8     NA
99  2017-02-11 249 216 199 177 145.8     NA
100 2017-02-12 250 217 200 178 146.8     NA
101 2017-02-13 249 214 198 179 147.8     NA
102 2017-02-14 247 210 196 179 145.9     NA
103 2017-02-15 251 213 199 182 148.8     NA
104 2017-02-16 249 213 197 182 148.6     NA
105 2017-02-17 246 213 194 178 148.2     NA
106 2017-02-18 244 212 194 177 146.0     NA
107 2017-02-19 242 206 193 174 145.8     NA
108 2017-02-20 243 211 195 178 150.1     NA
109 2017-02-21 239 211 192 178 150.2     NA
110 2017-02-22 235 210 190 177 148.4     NA
111 2017-02-23 234 211 190 177 148.5     NA
112 2017-02-24 232 206 189 176 147.2     NA
113 2017-02-25 231 206 188 176 147.3     NA
114 2017-02-26 228 206 189 174 147.5     NA
115 2017-02-27 226 204 187 171 146.4     NA
116 2017-02-28 235 212 195 178 154.0     NA
117 2017-03-01 236 213 198 180 154.3     NA
118 2017-03-02 236 211 197 179 154.1     NA
119 2017-03-03 235 210 196 178 153.4     NA
120 2017-03-04 233 209 195 178 152.7     NA
121 2017-03-05 232 207 190 177 152.5     NA
122 2017-03-06 231 205 188 176 151.9     NA
123 2017-03-07 230 205 189 177 151.9     NA
124 2017-03-08 231 207 188 176 153.5     NA
125 2017-03-09 228 205 184 173 148.7     NA
126 2017-03-10 228 204 183 173 148.6     NA
127 2017-03-11 227 201 181 172 147.2     NA
128 2017-03-12 225 197 180 168 145.9     NA
129 2017-03-13 224 195 179 168 144.2     NA
130 2017-03-14 223 194 179 167 141.7     NA
131 2017-03-15 220 192 178 161 140.1     NA
132 2017-03-16 218 192 176 160 136.4     NA
133 2017-03-17 216 191 173 159 134.7     NA
134 2017-03-18 211 190 173 159 133.7     NA
135 2017-03-19 209 189 171 157 132.8     NA
136 2017-03-20 208 185 169 155 130.8     NA
137 2017-03-21 208 186 170 155 129.9     NA
138 2017-03-22 208 184 169 155 126.5     NA
139 2017-03-23 207 184 168 154 125.3     NA
140 2017-03-24 207 185 168 155 126.5     NA
141 2017-03-25 206 183 166 154 126.0     NA
142 2017-03-26 208 186 168 156 128.6     NA
143 2017-03-27 206 184 167 156 128.1     NA
144 2017-03-28 206 179 166 154 128.0     NA
145 2017-03-29 213 185 173 160 134.9     NA
146 2017-03-30 213 183 171 160 134.6     NA
147 2017-03-31 214 180 169 159 134.5     NA
148 2017-04-01 221 187 177 165 141.8     NA
149 2017-04-02 221 187 178 165 141.8   0.28
150 2017-04-03 220 186 176 164 142.7   0.55
151 2017-04-04 223 188 176 164 144.7   0.91
152 2017-04-05 227 191 179 164 149.8   1.24
153 2017-04-06 226 190 179 163 149.5   1.57
154 2017-04-07 225 188 177 162 148.2   1.85
155 2017-04-08 225 186 176 162 145.8   2.15
156 2017-04-09 224 185 175 159 144.3   2.49
157 2017-04-10 222 184 172 158 144.4   2.86
158 2017-04-11 216 181 171 155 144.3   3.19
159 2017-04-12 215 182 170 154 144.4   3.56
160 2017-04-13 211 182 170 152 141.9   3.91
161 2017-04-14 211 181 169 151 140.8   4.32
162 2017-04-15 210 179 168 150 137.0   4.79
163 2017-04-16 210 173 165 150 136.0   5.35
164 2017-04-17 209 174 166 147 137.6   5.96
165 2017-04-18 207 171 166 146 137.0   6.50
166 2017-04-19 206 170 163 147 137.5   7.17
167 2017-04-20 204 168 160 147 136.4   7.85
168 2017-04-21 202 170 162 149 135.6   8.62
169 2017-04-22 202 172 163 150 136.7   9.32
170 2017-04-23 200 172 160 150 135.7   9.91
171 2017-04-24 198 168 159 150 135.3  10.56
172 2017-04-25 202 171 159 155 137.6  11.18
173 2017-04-26 203 170 158 152 137.9  11.85
174 2017-04-27 202 170 160 155 138.9  12.47
175 2017-04-28 203 170 163 156 141.3  13.10
176 2017-04-29 201 172 165 157 144.3  13.55
177 2017-04-30 198 172 167 157 145.6  13.80
178 2017-05-01 199 174 170 161 149.9  14.95
179 2017-05-02 199 174 169 160 150.2  15.18
180 2017-05-03 195 175 170 163 152.3  15.66
181 2017-05-04 193 175 169 162 152.2  16.12
182 2017-05-05 190 173 167 161 152.0  16.57
183 2017-05-06 187 173 166 157 151.6  17.04
184 2017-05-07 186 172 166 157 149.4  17.53
185 2017-05-08 186 172 165 156 148.6  18.54
186 2017-05-09 184 174 167 156 150.7  19.38
187 2017-05-10 188 175 169 159 153.0  20.26
188 2017-05-11 188 177 171 160 154.6  21.27
189 2017-05-12 188 175 170 160 154.1  22.29
190 2017-05-13 188 173 165 158 153.4  23.31
191 2017-05-14 186 173 163 155 150.0  24.54
192 2017-05-15 185 172 163 155 149.4  26.05
193 2017-05-16 183 170 162 154 148.0  27.74
194 2017-05-17 180 168 161 152 145.8  29.33
195 2017-05-18 189 178 171 162 156.3  30.89
196 2017-05-19 204 195 186 180 173.9  32.56
197 2017-05-20 208 197 187 182 177.0  34.12
198 2017-05-21 207 195 186 181 176.2  35.31
199 2017-05-22 211 199 189 184 179.4  36.40
200 2017-05-23 218 203 192 190 184.5  37.60
201 2017-05-24 217 203 192 190 184.6  38.78
202 2017-05-25 212 203 191 188 182.8  39.90
203 2017-05-26 209 200 192 190 183.3  41.14
204 2017-05-27 206 199 191 189 182.8  42.56
205 2017-05-28 209 201 194 192 186.5  44.02
206 2017-05-29 208 199 193 191 185.2  45.56
207 2017-05-30 206 197 193 189 185.2  46.96
208 2017-05-31 202 192 189 185 180.5  48.42
209 2017-06-01 201 194 189 187 181.8  51.43
210 2017-06-02 197 191 188 185 180.1  53.20
211 2017-06-03 196 190 187 185 180.1  55.19
212 2017-06-04 197 190 188 185 179.7  57.42
213 2017-06-05 196 190 187 184 178.9  59.86
214 2017-06-06 194 189 186 183 178.6  62.96
215 2017-06-07 194 190 186 183 179.8  66.35
216 2017-06-08 194 189 186 183 179.9  69.66
217 2017-06-09 193 188 185 182 179.8  73.26
219 2017-06-11 199 195 192 188 186.5  81.34
220 2017-06-12 198 195 191 188 186.4  85.65
221 2017-06-13 197 194 189 188 185.6  89.69
222 2017-06-14 197 193 189 187 184.6  94.02
223 2017-06-15 196 193 189 187 184.5  97.54
224 2017-06-16 195 193 188 187 184.1 100.86
225 2017-06-17 195 192 188 186 184.4 104.19
226 2017-06-18 195 192 187 186 184.1 107.80
227 2017-06-19 195 192 188 187 184.6 111.53
228 2017-06-20 196 191 188 187 185.1 115.34
229 2017-06-21 195 191 188 187 184.4 118.96
230 2017-06-22 195 191 188 187 184.3 122.45
231 2017-06-23 195 190 188 186 183.9 125.87
232 2017-06-24 195 190 187 186 183.6 128.97
233 2017-06-25 194 190 187 186 183.4 131.86
234 2017-06-26 193 189 186 185 182.7 134.54
235 2017-06-27 192 189 185 184 182.5 136.98
236 2017-06-28 192 188 186 184 182.0 139.25
237 2017-06-29 192 188 185 183 181.9 141.46
238 2017-06-30 191 187 185 183 181.8 143.44
239 2017-07-01 190 187 184 183 181.6 145.19
240 2017-07-02 189 185 183 181 180.5 146.12
241 2017-07-03 189 185 183 181 180.3 147.71
242 2017-07-04 188 184 182 181 179.7 149.24
243 2017-07-05 186 182 180 179 178.5 150.59
244 2017-07-06 184 180 179 178 177.8 151.97
245 2017-07-07 183 180 178 178 177.7 153.32
246 2017-07-08 181 178 177 177 176.4 154.58
247 2017-07-09 180 177 177 176 176.0 155.78
248 2017-07-10 179 177 177 176 176.0 157.04
249 2017-07-11 178 178 177 176 176.2 158.23
250 2017-07-12 179 178 177 177 176.6 159.48
251 2017-07-13 182 180 179 179 178.8 160.88
252 2017-07-14 182 181 180 179 179.3 162.47
253 2017-07-15 181 180 179 179 178.8 163.91
254 2017-07-16 181 180 179 179 178.8 165.13
255 2017-07-17 181 180 179 179 178.8 166.28
256 2017-07-18 181 180 179 179 178.8 167.31
257 2017-07-19 181 179 179 179 178.8 168.32
258 2017-07-20 181 179 179 179 178.8 169.24
259 2017-07-21 180 179 179 179 178.9 170.30
260 2017-07-22 181 179 179 179 178.9 171.21
261 2017-07-23 180 179 179 179 179.1 172.29
262 2017-07-24 180 179 179 179 179.2 173.26
263 2017-07-25 180 179 179 179 179.2 174.11
264 2017-07-26 180 179 179 179 179.2 174.84
265 2017-07-27 180 179 179 179 179.3 175.71
266 2017-07-28 180 179 179 179 179.4 176.58
267 2017-07-29 180 179 179 179 179.5 177.41
268 2017-07-30 180 180 180 180 179.6 178.20
269 2017-07-31 180 180 180 180 179.8 179.05
p10=10% exceedance, etc., Obs=Included Observed

Maximum of 276 in 1984, Minimum of 54.1 in 2002, Average/Median for 1981-2010 is 163/159.
ESP forecasts in the Observed Period w/o observed values are not total runoff.