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Weekly ESP

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ESP Raw Model Guidance:
This is raw model guidance from the National Weather Service River Forecast System. The model is run several times daily and utilizes inputs of temperature, precipitation, current streamflow, and short term weather forecasts. A physically based modeling approach simulates current hydrologic conditions that include soil moisture, snowpack and streamflow. The Ensemble Prediction System (ESP) component accesses these current model hydrologic conditions and many years of historical climate data, to generate equally likely streamflow runoff scenarios into the future. Statistical analysis is performed on these runoff scenarios to generate probabilistic forecasts of seasonal water supply. ESP is also a highly versatile system that may account for weather and/or climate forecasts.

This raw model guidance utilizes 5 days of future precipitation and 10 days of future temperatures. This guidance has not been reviewed or adjusted by forecasters and does not use climate forecasts. Of greatest value from the weekly guidance are changes indicated by the forecast model by comparing previous guidance for the same forecast period. These changes result primarily from the weather that occurs throughout the winter and spring, between model runs.


Official Coordinated Forecast:
These forecasts are the result of coordination between hydrologists from the National Weather Service and Natural Resources Conservation Service. ESP raw model guidance is one of two forecast tools used to arrive at NWS preferred forecast values. The other tool is a statistical model that relates snow pack, precipitation, and other variables to seasonal runoff.