The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-January precipitation was near 90 percent of average in the Salt River Basin and 85 percent of average in the Verde River Basin.

January precipitation was 15 to 30 percent of average in the Salt and Verde River Basins.

Streamflow:
January streamflow was near 75 percent of median on the Salt and Verde Rivers.

Snow:
February 1st snowpack conditions was 65 percent of average in the Verde River Basin, with condtions in the upper Salt River Basin near 90 percent of average.

Salt River Basin Snow Plot.
Verde River Basin Snow Plot.

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states are near to below average at this time.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Dry conditions in January were consistent with La Nina climate conditions that currently exist. Seasonal precipitation October-January was generally average to below average. La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation over the next few months. Forecast volumes are near 57 percent of median in the Tonto, 59 percent of median in the Verde River Basin and 46 percent of median in the Salt River Basin.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-January precipitation was 95 percent of average.

January precipitation was 30 percent of average.

Streamflow:
January streamflow was 55 percent of median.

Snow:
February 1st snowpack conditions were near 95 percent of average in the upper Gila Basin.

Upper Gila Basin Snow Plot.
San Francisco Basin Snow Plot

Soil Moisture:
Modeled soil moisture states are near average at this time.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
Dry conditions in January were consistent with La Nina climate conditions that currently exist. Seasonal precipitation October-January was generally average. La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation over the next few months. Forecast volumes range from 52 to 72 percent of median.

The following conditions influenced this month's forecasts:

Precipitation:
Seasonal October-January precipitation was 85 percent of average.

January precipitation was 30 percent of average throughout the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:
Minimal streamflow observations exist for January. The January volume on the Little Colorado near Lyman was near 60 percent of median.

Snow:
Basin snowpack conditions on February 1st were near 90 percent of average in the southern Headwaters.

Little Colorado Snow Plot
Central Mogollon Rim Snow Plot

Soil Moisture: Modeled soil moisture states are near to below average at this time.

Climate Forecasts:
La Nina climate conditions suggest decreased chances for precipitation in this area. The La Nina influence was accounted for in generation of these forecasts.

Forecast Summary:
The presence of La Nina climate conditions suggest below average precipitation into the spring. Below average seasonal precipitation exists over most of the Little Colorado Basin. February-May streamflow volumes are forecast to range from 43 to 79 percent of median.

Differences between the full period forecasts and the residual forecasts may not exactly equal the actual observed volumes due to rounding conventions (see Definitions section).