Most forecasts were too low compared to observed flows because of the unusual weather conditions that ensued after the runoff season began. Forecasts throughout the spring were influenced by snowpack conditions that were near average at most locations. Expectations are for the snowpack to slowly melt off during May, not to increase, as it did this year. Therefore early season forecasts proved to be too low at many locations. Forecasts issued in May and June were raised to take into account the increase in high elevation snowpack. However, a difficulty exists in developing quality late season forecast procedures using snowpack information because of the lack of historical snow observations beyond the month of May. Typically significant runoff has already occurred by early June.
Observed flows were generally near or exceeded the 10% exceedance values for spring of 1995. In general the more non-typical the season, the greater the forecast error. That most observed flows were measured above the reasonable maximum (10%) forecast value points to the fact that the 1995 runoff season was one of meteorologic and hydrologic extremes.
