Green River - LaBarge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Created: July 13 2017
DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology
|2017-07-14||6712||Daily Model Output (20170713)
|2017-07-24||3927||ESP Model Output (20170712)
SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.