McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 30 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2017-07-01487Daily Model Output (20170630)
2017-07-02475
2017-07-03434
2017-07-04407
2017-07-05384
2017-07-06362
2017-07-07342
2017-07-08324
2017-07-09306
2017-07-10290
2017-07-11304ESP Model Output (20170629)
2017-07-12289
2017-07-13276
2017-07-14263
2017-07-15251
2017-07-16240
2017-07-17232
2017-07-18224
2017-07-19215
2017-07-20206
2017-07-21198
2017-07-22193
2017-07-23189
2017-07-24183
2017-07-25198
2017-07-26192
2017-07-27188
2017-07-28183
2017-07-29176
2017-07-30190
2017-07-31183



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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