McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 17 2018

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2018-05-18440Daily Model Output (20180517)
2018-05-19438
2018-05-20393
2018-05-21349
2018-05-22324
2018-05-23319
2018-05-24289
2018-05-25255
2018-05-26230
2018-05-27214
2018-05-28200
2018-05-29189
2018-05-30179
2018-05-31170
2018-06-01161
2018-06-02174ESP Model Output (20180516)
2018-06-03165
2018-06-04158
2018-06-05152
2018-06-06145
2018-06-07139
2018-06-08132
2018-06-09127
2018-06-10120
2018-06-11118
2018-06-12113
2018-06-13108
2018-06-14104
2018-06-15100
2018-06-1699
2018-06-1795
2018-06-1891
2018-06-1987
2018-06-2083
2018-06-2180
2018-06-2277
2018-06-2376
2018-06-2473
2018-06-2571
2018-06-2668
2018-06-2767
2018-06-2867
2018-06-2965
2018-06-3063
2018-07-0161
2018-07-0259
2018-07-0357
2018-07-0456
2018-07-0554
2018-07-0653
2018-07-0757
2018-07-0852
2018-07-0953
2018-07-1053
2018-07-1151
2018-07-1250
2018-07-1348
2018-07-1448
2018-07-1550
2018-07-1650
2018-07-1751
2018-07-1850
2018-07-1948
2018-07-2046
2018-07-2146
2018-07-2247
2018-07-2349
2018-07-2453
2018-07-2557
2018-07-2657
2018-07-2754
2018-07-2859
2018-07-2967
2018-07-3075
2018-07-3166



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-15 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 15 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes so there is increasing uncertainty
past days 3-5.
- Days 16 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model. Some possible reasons are:
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs; diversions; etc.) above the
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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