McPhee Reservoir Inflow
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: May 18 2018

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2018-05-19398Daily Model Output (20180518)
2018-05-20378
2018-05-21356
2018-05-22355
2018-05-23385
2018-05-24361
2018-05-25312
2018-05-26261
2018-05-27236
2018-05-28219
2018-05-29206
2018-05-30194
2018-05-31184
2018-06-01175
2018-06-02166
2018-06-03164ESP Model Output (20180517)
2018-06-04156
2018-06-05152
2018-06-06145
2018-06-07138
2018-06-08132
2018-06-09126
2018-06-10119
2018-06-11116
2018-06-12111
2018-06-13107
2018-06-14103
2018-06-1599
2018-06-1696
2018-06-1793
2018-06-1889
2018-06-1986
2018-06-2083
2018-06-2179
2018-06-2276
2018-06-2374
2018-06-2471
2018-06-2569
2018-06-2667
2018-06-2767
2018-06-2865
2018-06-2963
2018-06-3061
2018-07-0160
2018-07-0258
2018-07-0356
2018-07-0454
2018-07-0554
2018-07-0651
2018-07-0755
2018-07-0853
2018-07-0951
2018-07-1050
2018-07-1149
2018-07-1247
2018-07-1348
2018-07-1448
2018-07-1550
2018-07-1649
2018-07-1748
2018-07-1849
2018-07-1947
2018-07-2046
2018-07-2145
2018-07-2246
2018-07-2348
2018-07-2453
2018-07-2557
2018-07-2657
2018-07-2754
2018-07-2859
2018-07-2967
2018-07-3075
2018-07-3166



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-15 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 15 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes so there is increasing uncertainty
past days 3-5.
- Days 16 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model. Some possible reasons are:
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs; diversions; etc.) above the
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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