Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 21 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2017-06-224921Daily Model Output (20170621)
2017-06-234725
2017-06-244507
2017-06-253924
2017-06-263475
2017-06-273118
2017-06-282846
2017-06-292632
2017-06-302446
2017-07-012255
2017-07-021937ESP Model Output (20170620)
2017-07-031805
2017-07-041581
2017-07-051485
2017-07-061413
2017-07-071302
2017-07-081215
2017-07-091137
2017-07-101062
2017-07-111007
2017-07-12954
2017-07-13908
2017-07-14858
2017-07-15814
2017-07-16779
2017-07-17749
2017-07-18719
2017-07-19688
2017-07-20661
2017-07-21630
2017-07-22599
2017-07-23582
2017-07-24557
2017-07-25537
2017-07-26517
2017-07-27499
2017-07-28483
2017-07-29473
2017-07-30460
2017-07-31452
2017-08-01437
2017-08-02427
2017-08-03418
2017-08-04416
2017-08-05405
2017-08-06399
2017-08-07391
2017-08-08386
2017-08-09382
2017-08-10373
2017-08-11368
2017-08-12368
2017-08-13364
2017-08-14357
2017-08-15353
2017-08-16350
2017-08-17349
2017-08-18345
2017-08-19340
2017-08-20334
2017-08-21331
2017-08-22324
2017-08-23338
2017-08-24339
2017-08-25336
2017-08-26332
2017-08-27327
2017-08-28318
2017-08-29313
2017-08-30306
2017-08-31302
2017-09-01299
2017-09-02294
2017-09-03291
2017-09-04288
2017-09-05281
2017-09-06275
2017-09-07274
2017-09-08266
2017-09-09261
2017-09-10260
2017-09-11258
2017-09-12258
2017-09-13253
2017-09-14250
2017-09-15247
2017-09-16242
2017-09-17242
2017-09-18236
2017-09-19232
2017-09-20239
2017-09-21242
2017-09-22270
2017-09-23269
2017-09-24268
2017-09-25271
2017-09-26272
2017-09-27274
2017-09-28275
2017-09-29277
2017-09-30276



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
**Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
**Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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