Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 27 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2017-06-282606Daily Model Output (20170627)
2017-06-292412
2017-06-302346
2017-07-012168
2017-07-021986
2017-07-031844
2017-07-041748
2017-07-051663
2017-07-061558
2017-07-071454
2017-07-081461ESP Model Output (20170626)
2017-07-091363
2017-07-101269
2017-07-111174
2017-07-121112
2017-07-131037
2017-07-14992
2017-07-15938
2017-07-16887
2017-07-17846
2017-07-18810
2017-07-19764
2017-07-20726
2017-07-21692
2017-07-22662
2017-07-23632
2017-07-24610
2017-07-25582
2017-07-26563
2017-07-27541
2017-07-28523
2017-07-29506
2017-07-30495
2017-07-31482
2017-08-01467
2017-08-02452
2017-08-03443
2017-08-04436
2017-08-05420
2017-08-06417
2017-08-07411
2017-08-08402
2017-08-09396
2017-08-10388
2017-08-11380
2017-08-12377
2017-08-13374
2017-08-14368
2017-08-15363
2017-08-16359
2017-08-17357
2017-08-18352
2017-08-19345
2017-08-20340
2017-08-21338
2017-08-22329
2017-08-23344
2017-08-24343
2017-08-25341
2017-08-26335
2017-08-27330
2017-08-28321
2017-08-29316
2017-08-30309
2017-08-31305
2017-09-01301
2017-09-02297
2017-09-03292
2017-09-04288
2017-09-05283
2017-09-06276
2017-09-07275
2017-09-08267
2017-09-09261
2017-09-10261
2017-09-11259
2017-09-12259
2017-09-13254
2017-09-14250
2017-09-15247
2017-09-16243
2017-09-17243
2017-09-18237
2017-09-19233
2017-09-20239
2017-09-21242
2017-09-22271
2017-09-23269
2017-09-24269
2017-09-25272
2017-09-26273
2017-09-27274
2017-09-28276
2017-09-29278
2017-09-30277



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
**Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
**Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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