Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: June 30 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2017-07-011997Daily Model Output (20170630)
2017-07-021840
2017-07-031794
2017-07-041693
2017-07-051590
2017-07-061491
2017-07-071390
2017-07-081291
2017-07-091204
2017-07-101120
2017-07-111164ESP Model Output (20170629)
2017-07-121094
2017-07-131020
2017-07-14967
2017-07-15920
2017-07-16878
2017-07-17840
2017-07-18800
2017-07-19757
2017-07-20723
2017-07-21687
2017-07-22656
2017-07-23630
2017-07-24603
2017-07-25580
2017-07-26558
2017-07-27537
2017-07-28521
2017-07-29504
2017-07-30495
2017-07-31480
2017-08-01464
2017-08-02449
2017-08-03438
2017-08-04434
2017-08-05419
2017-08-06416
2017-08-07408
2017-08-08401
2017-08-09396
2017-08-10387
2017-08-11381
2017-08-12376
2017-08-13373
2017-08-14368
2017-08-15360
2017-08-16358
2017-08-17354
2017-08-18350
2017-08-19345
2017-08-20340
2017-08-21336
2017-08-22329
2017-08-23344
2017-08-24343
2017-08-25341
2017-08-26335
2017-08-27329
2017-08-28321
2017-08-29316
2017-08-30309
2017-08-31305
2017-09-01301
2017-09-02297
2017-09-03292
2017-09-04288
2017-09-05283
2017-09-06276
2017-09-07275
2017-09-08267
2017-09-09261
2017-09-10261
2017-09-11259
2017-09-12259
2017-09-13254
2017-09-14250
2017-09-15247
2017-09-16243
2017-09-17243
2017-09-18237
2017-09-19233
2017-09-20239
2017-09-21242
2017-09-22271
2017-09-23269
2017-09-24269
2017-09-25272
2017-09-26273
2017-09-27274
2017-09-28275
2017-09-29278
2017-09-30277



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
**Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
**Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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