Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 02 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2017-07-031520Daily Model Output (20170702)
2017-07-041399
2017-07-051341
2017-07-061244
2017-07-071168
2017-07-081095
2017-07-091028
2017-07-10970
2017-07-11917
2017-07-12868
2017-07-13969ESP Model Output (20170701)
2017-07-14921
2017-07-15880
2017-07-16841
2017-07-17807
2017-07-18768
2017-07-19734
2017-07-20702
2017-07-21668
2017-07-22636
2017-07-23612
2017-07-24586
2017-07-25562
2017-07-26541
2017-07-27522
2017-07-28506
2017-07-29492
2017-07-30481
2017-07-31470
2017-08-01454
2017-08-02441
2017-08-03430
2017-08-04420
2017-08-05411
2017-08-06405
2017-08-07400
2017-08-08395
2017-08-09390
2017-08-10381
2017-08-11375
2017-08-12372
2017-08-13369
2017-08-14363
2017-08-15356
2017-08-16354
2017-08-17350
2017-08-18348
2017-08-19341
2017-08-20336
2017-08-21334
2017-08-22327
2017-08-23341
2017-08-24342
2017-08-25338
2017-08-26334
2017-08-27328
2017-08-28320
2017-08-29315
2017-08-30307
2017-08-31304
2017-09-01300
2017-09-02296
2017-09-03292
2017-09-04287
2017-09-05282
2017-09-06276
2017-09-07274
2017-09-08267
2017-09-09261
2017-09-10261
2017-09-11258
2017-09-12258
2017-09-13253
2017-09-14250
2017-09-15247
2017-09-16243
2017-09-17243
2017-09-18237
2017-09-19232
2017-09-20239
2017-09-21241
2017-09-22270
2017-09-23269
2017-09-24269
2017-09-25272
2017-09-26273
2017-09-27274
2017-09-28274
2017-09-29277
2017-09-30277



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
**Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
**Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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