Yampa - Deerlodge
Daily Average Forecast Flow (ending 12z on given date)
Units: CFSD

Created: July 05 2017

DAILY TOTAL: deterministic forecast flow (official forecast on CBRFC website)
ESP TOTAL: 50% exceedance forecast flow based on climatology


DATETOTAL
2017-07-061192Daily Model Output (20170705)
2017-07-071141
2017-07-081098
2017-07-091000
2017-07-10932
2017-07-11889
2017-07-12849
2017-07-13822
2017-07-14791
2017-07-15760
2017-07-16824ESP Model Output (20170704)
2017-07-17794
2017-07-18761
2017-07-19723
2017-07-20688
2017-07-21657
2017-07-22629
2017-07-23602
2017-07-24582
2017-07-25558
2017-07-26537
2017-07-27519
2017-07-28501
2017-07-29487
2017-07-30475
2017-07-31463
2017-08-01448
2017-08-02438
2017-08-03425
2017-08-04419
2017-08-05408
2017-08-06401
2017-08-07397
2017-08-08391
2017-08-09384
2017-08-10379
2017-08-11374
2017-08-12370
2017-08-13367
2017-08-14362
2017-08-15356
2017-08-16352
2017-08-17350
2017-08-18348
2017-08-19340
2017-08-20336
2017-08-21332
2017-08-22327
2017-08-23341
2017-08-24342
2017-08-25338
2017-08-26333
2017-08-27328
2017-08-28320
2017-08-29314
2017-08-30307
2017-08-31304
2017-09-01300
2017-09-02295
2017-09-03292
2017-09-04287
2017-09-05282
2017-09-06276
2017-09-07273
2017-09-08266
2017-09-09261
2017-09-10261
2017-09-11257
2017-09-12258
2017-09-13253
2017-09-14250
2017-09-15246
2017-09-16242
2017-09-17243
2017-09-18237
2017-09-19232
2017-09-20239
2017-09-21241
2017-09-22270
2017-09-23269
2017-09-24269
2017-09-25270
2017-09-26273
2017-09-27274
2017-09-28274
2017-09-29277
2017-09-30276



SPECIFIC SITE NOTES:
**Flows can be affected by Elkhead Reservoir operations.
**Large differences between the deterministic flows and ESP flows can occur
when the observed gage data is much different than the raw model simulation.

GENERAL NOTES:
- Days 1-10 are from the CBRFC deterministic model. This uses
5 days of precipitation forecasts and 10 days of temperature
forecasts. These are updated daily and will change as the
weather forecast changes
past days 3-5.
- Days 11 and beyond are from the Ensemble Prediction Model (ESP).
This model is driven primarily by climatology for the 1981-2015
period. This guidance is probabilistic and used the 50% exceedance
value. It is best to use this as a possible pattern of flow into
the future as opposed to an exact value that will occur.
- An abrupt change in guidance may occur at the switch from the
daily model to the ESP model
- The daily model is using a temperature forecast that is either
much above or below normal before reverting to normal
temperatures in ESP.
- If there is regulation (reservoirs
forecast point there may be differences between the two runs in
how they are being handled. Please check with CBRFC forecasters
for details on specific forecast points.
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