SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Mar 03, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for February - April and seasonal 
volumes for Mar - July and Apr - July.

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February OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Feb observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 686.6 + Muddy River 2.2 
  + Virgin River 8.3 - Powell Release 597.4) ~ 99.4 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

March - May Forecasts

	   March      80  KAF ( 73% of average)
	   April      50  KAF ( 48% of average)
	   May        50  KAF ( 66% of average)

April - July Forecast:     175 KAF ( 63% of average)

March - July Forecast:     255 KAF ( 66% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Mar 5.0 KAF ( 34% of median or  21% of average)
	   Apr 5.0 KAF ( 33% of median or  23% of average)
	   May 3.5 KAF ( 29% of median or  14% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Mar  2.3 KAF ( 11% of median or  8% of average) 
	   Apr  1.0 KAF ( 13% of median or  5% of average) 
	   May  0.5 KAF ( 51% of median or  12% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Mar  1.7 KAF ( 105% of median or 76% of average)
	   Apr  1.4 KAF ( 139% of median or 120% of average)
	   May  1.0 KAF ( 230% of median or 151% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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