SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Apr 01, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for April - June and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July.

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March OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
March observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 592.5 + Muddy River 2.1 
  + Virgin River 8.3 - Powell Release 499.1) ~ 103.8 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

April - June Forecasts

	   April      50  KAF ( 48% of average)
	   May        50  KAF ( 66% of average)
	   June       25  KAF ( 71% of average)

April - July Forecast:     165 KAF ( 60% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Apr  4.0 KAF ( 26% of median or  18% of average)
	   May  2.5 KAF ( 21% of median or  10% of average)
	   Jun  2.0 KAF ( 40% of median or  19% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Apr  0.4 KAF (  5% of median or   2% of average) 
	   May  0.4 KAF ( 41% of median or  10% of average) 
	   Jun  0.2 KAF (999% of median or  99% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Apr  1.1 KAF (110% of median or  94% of average)
	   May  0.9 KAF (207% of median or 136% of average)
	   Jun  0.3 KAF (109% of median or  80% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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