SLCESPAZ NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH Apr 16, 2014 The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local (or intervening flow). Forecasts include monthly values for April - June and a seasonal volume for Apr - July. ------------------------------------------------------------------- APR 1-14 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) - values in KAF - APR 1-14 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 266.6 + Muddy River 1.0 + Virgin River 3.3 - Powell Release 234.2) ~ 36.7 KAF ------------------------------------------------------------------- FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System): * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * Lake Mead Intervening Flow: April - June Forecasts April 55 KAF ( 52% of average) May 40 KAF ( 53% of average) June 25 KAF ( 71% of average) April - July Forecast: 160 KAF ( 58% of average) ----------------------- Tributaries: Virgin River nr Littlefield Apr 4.0 KAF ( 26% of median or 18% of average) May 2.5 KAF ( 21% of median or 10% of average) Jun 2.0 KAF ( 40% of median or 19% of average) Little Colorado nr Cameron Apr 0.1 KAF ( 1% of median or 1% of average) May 0.3 KAF ( 31% of median or 7% of average) Jun 0.2 KAF (999% of median or 99% of average) Paria Creek nr Lee's Ferry Apr 0.9 KAF ( 90% of median or 77% of average) May 0.9 KAF (207% of median or 136% of average) Jun 0.3 KAF (109% of median or 80% of average) * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * CBRFC NNNN $$