SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 01, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for May - July.

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APR OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
APR observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 545.4 + Muddy River 2.2 
  + Virgin River 6.8 - Powell Release 500.9) ~ 53.5 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	   May        40  KAF ( 53% of average)
	   June       25  KAF ( 71% of average)
	   July       40  KAF ( 66% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     159 KAF ( 57% of average)
May - July Forecast:     105 KAF ( 61% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   May  2.5 KAF ( 21% of median or  10% of average)
	   Jun  2.0 KAF ( 40% of median or  19% of average)
	   Jul  3.0 KAF ( 53% of median or  43% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   May  0.2 KAF ( 21% of median or   5% of average) 
	   Jun  0.2 KAF (999% of median or  99% of average) 
	   Jul  1.0 KAF ( 46% of median or  18% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   May  0.7 KAF (161% of median or 106% of average)
	   Jun  0.3 KAF (109% of median or  80% of average)
	   Jul  0.8 KAF (125% of median or  79% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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