SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
May 19, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for May - July and the seasonal
volume for May - July.

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MAY 1-17 OBSERVED DATA: (From USGS gage data)

                       - values in KAF -
May 1-17 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 301.4 + Muddy River 1.3
  + Virgin River 3.4 - Powell Release 274.4 ) ~  31.7 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

May - July Forecasts

	   May        45  KAF ( 59% of average)
	   June       25  KAF ( 71% of average)
	   July       40  KAF ( 66% of average)


May - July Forecast:  110 KAF ( 64% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   May  4.0 KAF ( 33% of median or 16% of average)
	   Jun  2.0 KAF ( 40% of median or 19% of average)
	   Jul  3.0 KAF ( 53% of median or 43% of average)
	   

          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

           May 0.2 KAF (  21% of median or  5% of average)
	   Jun 0.2 KAF ( 999% of median or 99% of average) 
	   Jul 1.0 KAF (  46% of median or 18% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   May 0.5 KAF (115% of median or 76% of average)
	   Jun 0.3 KAF (109% of median or 80% of average)
	   Jun 0.8 KAF (125% of median or 79% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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