SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jun 16, 2013


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jun - Aug and a seasonal 
volume for Apr - July and for Jun - July.

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JUNE 1-13 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
JUNE 1-13 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 271.9 + Muddy River 0.8 
  + Virgin River 2.3 - Powell Release 264.9) ~ 10.1 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jun - Aug Forecasts

	   June       30  KAF ( 86% of average)
	   July       35  KAF ( 57% of average)
	   Aug        50  KAF ( 58% of average)

Apr - July Forecast:     182 KAF ( 66% of average)
Jun - July Forecast:      65 KAF ( 68% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jun  3.0 KAF ( 60% of median or  28% of average)
	   Jul  3.0 KAF ( 53% of median or  43% of average)
	   Aug  4.0 KAF ( 52% of median or  45% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jun  0.0 KAF (  0% of median or   0% of average) 
	   Jul  0.5 KAF ( 23% of median or   9% of average) 
	   Aug  2.0 KAF ( 20% of median or  10% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Jun  0.3 KAF (109% of median or  80% of average)
	   Jul  0.8 KAF (125% of median or  79% of average)
	   Aug  1.5 KAF ( 81% of median or  66% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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