SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Jul 16, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Jul - Sep.
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July 1-15 OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
July 1-15 observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 419.4 + Muddy River 0.9 
  + Virgin River 2.4 - Powell Release 391.9) ~ 30.8 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Jul - Sep Forecasts

	   July       45  KAF ( 74% of average)
	   Aug        50  KAF ( 58% of average)
	   Sep        65  KAF ( 70% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Jul  3.0 KAF ( 53% of median or  43% of average)
	   Aug  4.0 KAF ( 52% of median or  45% of average)
	   Sep  4.5 KAF ( 67% of median or  51% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Jul  0.5 KAF ( 23% of median or   9% of average) 
	   Aug  2.0 KAF ( 20% of median or  10% of average) 
	   Sep  2.8 KAF ( 26% of median or  20% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Jul  0.8 KAF (125% of median or  7% of average)
	   Aug  1.5 KAF ( 81% of median or  66% of average)
	   Sep  1.5 KAF (112% of median or  81% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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