SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Sep 02, 2014


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Sep - Nov.
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Aug OBSERVED DATA (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Aug observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 900.3 + Muddy River 9.7 
  + Virgin River 1.1 - Powell Release 818.0) ~ 93.1 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Sep - Nov Forecasts

	   Sep        60  KAF ( 65% of average)
	   Oct        60  KAF ( 80% of average)
	   Nov        45  KAF ( 79% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Sep  4.5 KAF ( 67% of median or  51% of average)
	   Oct  6.5 KAF ( 60% of median or  58% of average)
	   Nov  7.5 KAF ( 64% of median or  62% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Sep  1.5 KAF ( 14% of median or  11% of average) 
	   Oct  0.5 KAF ( 35% of median or   7% of average) 
	   Nov  0.5 KAF (130% of median or  13% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Sep  1.5 KAF (112% of median or  81% of average)
	   Oct  1.3 KAF ( 88% of median or  66% of average)
	   Nov  1.2 KAF ( 93% of median or  88% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC

NNNN

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