SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Oct 16, 2013


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Oct - Dec.
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Oct 1-15 OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Oct observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 277.6 + Muddy River 1.0 
  + Virgin River 1.2 - Powell Release 236.5) ~ 43 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Oct - Dec Forecasts

	   Oct        70  KAF ( 93% of average)
	   Nov        55  KAF ( 96% of average)
	   Dec        60  KAF ( 98% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Oct  6.0 KAF ( 55% of median or  53% of average)
	   Nov 10.0 KAF ( 86% of median or  83% of average)
	   Dec 11.0 KAF ( 91% of median or  81% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Oct  0.2 KAF ( 14% of median or   3% of average) 
	   Nov  0.3 KAF ( 78% of median or   8% of average) 
	   Dec  0.6 KAF ( 95% of median or  13% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Oct  0.8 KAF ( 54% of median or  41% of average)
	   Nov  1.0 KAF ( 78% of median or  73% of average)
	   Dec  1.0 KAF ( 86% of median or  80% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC/S.Bender

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