SLCESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH
Nov 01, 2013


The following are updated forecasts for the Lake Mead Local 
(or intervening flow).

Forecasts include monthly values for Nov - Jan.
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Oct OBSERVED Volumes (est.): (From USGS gage data) 
                       - values in KAF -
Oct observed (Colorado Diamond Ck 557.9 + Muddy River 2.4 
  + Virgin River 2.2 - Powell Release 483.4) ~ 79 KAF  

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FORECASTS (using the Ensemble Prediction System):

* All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value *

Lake Mead Intervening Flow:

Nov - Jan Forecasts

	   Nov        50  KAF ( 88% of average)
	   Dec        55  KAF ( 90% of average)
	   Jan        70  KAF ( 88% of average)

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Tributaries:

           Virgin River
           nr Littlefield

	   Nov  8.5 KAF ( 73% of median or  71% of average)
	   Dec 10.0 KAF ( 82% of median or  74% of average)
	   Jan 12.0 KAF ( 89% of median or  63% of average)
	   
          Little Colorado
           nr Cameron

	   Nov  0.3 KAF ( 78% of median or   8% of average) 
	   Dec  0.6 KAF ( 95% of median or  13% of average) 
	   Jan  1.0 KAF ( 64% of median or   6% of average) 

          Paria Creek
           nr Lee's Ferry

	   Nov  1.0 KAF ( 78% of median or  73% of average)
	   Dec  1.0 KAF ( 86% of median or  80% of average)
	   Jan  1.1 KAF ( 91% of median or  66% of average)

       * All Forecasts are the 50% exceedance probability value * 

CBRFC/S.Bender

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